大数据环境下网络恐怖主义风险分析与防范对策研究  

A Study on the Risk Analysis and Prevention of Cyber-terrorism under Big Data Environment

作　　者：夏一雪[1] 兰月新[1] 王沙骋[2] Xia Yixue;Lan Yuexin;Wang Shacheng(The Chinese People＇s Armed Police Force Academy,Langfang 065000;Institute of Defense Economics and Management,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院,廊坊065000 [2]中央财经大学国防经济与管理研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《情报杂志》2017年第11期16-22,40,共8页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"我国反恐怖融资的情报监管机制研究"(编号:17BZZ041)研究成果之一

摘　　要：[目的/意义]研究大数据环境下网络恐怖主义风险建模,为网络恐怖主义风险防范提供理论基础和实践指导。[方法/过程]基于网络恐怖主义作为复杂的大规模系统的本质特征,采用等级全息建模方法,构建网络恐怖主义的风险情景,识别可观测的风险因素,进而进行风险量化、评级,得出高风险因素。[结论/结果]依据风险管理过程和风险分析结果,提出"无事先防、事初防变、事过防复"的风险管理理念,分别针对网络恐怖主义潜伏期、实施期、效应期的高风险因素,提出风险防范对策。[ Purpose/Significance] This study aims at providing a theoretical basis and practical guidance for the risk prevention of cyber -terrorism based on the risk modeling of cyber-terrorism under big data environment. [ Method/Process] Considering the essential charac-teristics of complex, large-scale system of cyber-terrorism,the study uses the hierarchical holographic modeling method to construct the risk situation,identifies the observable risk factors,carries out risk quantifying and rating,and obtains high-risk factors. [Result^Conclu- sion] According to the risk management process and risk analysis results,the study puts forward the risk management concept of ＂before-hand prevention,evolution prevention,and relapse prevention＂. In view of the high-risk factors of cyber-terrorism during the incubation period,implementation period,and effect period,the study puts forward risk prevention countermeasures accordingly for each period.

关 键 词：网络恐怖主义 风险管理 HHM风险建模 大数据 网络反恐 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]