云南5月强降水天气与亚洲季风变化的关系  

The relation between the May very heavy rainfall in Yunnan and the Asia monsoon index

作　　者：曹杰[1] 陶云[2] 段旭[2] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学地球科学系,云南昆明650091 [2]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《云南大学学报（自然科学版）》2002年第5期361-365,共5页Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences Edition)

基　　金：云南省自然科学基金课题 (2 0 0 0D0 0 91M );云南省"十五"攻关项目 (滇中中尺度灾害性天气监测预警系统科学实验及应用研究 )的共同资助

摘　　要：利用相关分析和EOF方法 ,研究了云南 5月大雨、暴雨日数与亚洲季风这一大尺度气候环流背景变化的关系 .研究结果表明 ,云南 5月强降水天气与南亚季风强度指数相关较好 ,其中同期 5月 ,相关系数为0 .4 93,前期 4月 ,相关系数为 0 .4 4 7,均超过了 99%的显著性水平 ;其次是前期 1月 ,相关系数为 0 .312 ,通过了95 %的显著性检验 .而云南 5月强降水天气仅与前期 4月南海季风强度指数相关较好 ,相关系数为 0 .4 15 ,通过了 98%的显著性检验 ,与其他月份相关不显著 .同时 11a滑动相关系数也清楚地反映了南亚季风对云南 5月强降水天气的影响大于南海季风 .另外 ,利用EOF方法 ,获得了云南 5月大雨、暴雨日数 3种主要的空间分布型 :全省一致型 (除昭通市 )、西部和东部、南部相反型以及东部和西部、南部相反型 .第 1类型与亚洲季风强度指数关系较为密切 ,特别是与南亚季风 ;第 2类型主要与南海季风相关较好 ,第The relation between the number of the May heavy storm days in Yunnan and the Asia monsoon intensity index is studied by correlation analysis and EOF methods.It is indicated by the results that there is a good correlation between the May heavy rainfall and the South Asia monsoon index.The correlation coefficients of the corresponding period,May,and the previous period,April,are 0.493 and 0.447 respectively,and go beyond 99% significance level.The correlation coefficient of the previous period,January,is 0.312,and goes beyond 95% significance level.The good correlation between the May very heavy rainfall and the the South Sea monsoon index is in the previous period,April,when the correlation coefficient is 0.415 and goes beyond 98% significance level,but the correlations of other months are not significant.The 11 yeas' running correlation coefficients also indicate that the effect of the South Asia monsoon on the May heavy rainfall in Yunnan is bigger than that of the South Sea monsoon.Three spatial distributions of the May heavy-storm days in Yunnan are obtained by EOF method.There is a good correlation between the first spatial distribution and the Asia monsoon index,especially the South Asia monsoon.There is also a good correlation between the second spatial distribution and the South Sea monsoon index.The effect of the Asia monsoon on the third spatial distribution is not obvious.

关 键 词：云南 5月 强降水天气 亚洲季风 南亚季风 南海季风 季风强度指数 相关系数 降水量 

分 类 号：P468.024[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P425.42