人口年龄结构变动对工业投资影响的实证分析——基于省级动态面板数据的SYS-GMM估计  

Analysis of the Impact of Population Age Structure Change on Industrial Investment——SYS-GMM Estimation Based on Dynamic Panel Data at Provincial Level

作　　者：张虹[1] 秦留志 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学经济学院,沈阳110036 [2]中国人民银行沈阳分行,沈阳110036

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2017年第12期56-62,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金"政策创新与区域经济发展趋同研究"(项目编号:14BJL083)

摘　　要：文章使用2004~2016年的省级面板数据,基于SYS—GMM估计方法,对中国30个省份的人口年龄结构变动与工业投资之间的关联性进行了研究。研究发现,前期投资、金融发展程度、人均GDP及人均GDP增长率能够对工业投资产生显著正向影响,但是老年抚养比和少儿抚养比等人口年龄因素对于工业投资的影响并不显著,这可能是由于中国的"人口红利"尚未得到完全释放。最后,针对本文研究结论,提出了相关政策建议。Based on the provincial panel data of 2004-2016 and the SYS - GMM method, this paper studies the relationship between the change of age structure and industrial investment in 30 provinces in China. The study find that there is significant correlation between industrial investment and investment and financial development level, but there is no significant correlation with the age structure changing. And it’s different with some scholars concluded that there is a significant correlation between the age structure and investment. This is because China’s “demographic dividend” has not yet been fully released. At the end of this paper some advisable suggestions for this articles research result are offered.

关 键 词：年龄结构 工业投资 系统广义矩估计 动态面板模型 抚养比 固定资产投资率 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]