IPD模式下的工程项目造价风险评价  

Risk Evaluation of Project Cost in IPD Mode

作　　者：赵辉[1] 邱玮婷 屈微璐 董骅[1] 

机构地区：[1]青岛理工大学管理学院,青岛266520

出　　处：《工业技术经济》2017年第12期83-89,共7页Journal of Industrial Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:71471094)

摘　　要：自中国进入经济新常态阶段,城市化进程加快,政府对建设工程项目三大目标越发重视,其中成本目标成为研究的热点,尤其是在控制造价风险的前提下,如何降低成本减少浪费,成为国内外学者研究的关键问题。因此,本文引入IPD模式,结合情景分析法与工作分解结构法,识别出该模式的25个造价风险指标,并运用结构熵权法进行风险权重计算,再采用D-S证据理论进行IPD项目的造价风险值计算,旨在评价IPD模式的风险情况,促进其在我国的推广与应用。Since China entered the new normal stage of economy,the process of urbanization has been accelerated,and the three goals of construction project have become more and more significant. The cost target has become the hotspot of research,especially how to reduce the cost and reduce the waste,become the key problem of domestic and foreign scholars. Domestic and foreign scholars are committed to finding a new project delivery model,which IPD model caused widespread concern,because the theoretical research is shallow,lack of practical experience,so the industry is still on the sidelines.Therefore,this paper introduces the IPD model,combined with the scenario analysis method and the work breakdown structure method to identify the 25 cost risk indicators of the model,and use the structural entropy weight method to carry out the risk weight calculation,then use the DS-Evidence theory to carry out the calculation of IPD project cost risk.Moreover,the conclusion is that the cost of the model brought about by the impact of the project is not obvious,indicating that the model in China has the value of promotion and application.

关 键 词：造价管理 风险评价 结构熵权法 D-S 证据理论 IPD 模式 风险权重 

分 类 号：F282[经济管理—国民经济]