上呼吸道感染的气象条件分析及预报  

Anlysis and Forecast of Meteorological Factors on Upper Respiratory Tract Infection

作　　者：李芳[1] 蔡鹏[1] 赵京峰[1] 张熙[1] 李霏[1] 郭宗运 

机构地区：[1]山东省济宁市气象局,济宁272000 [2]山东省济宁市第一人民医院,济宁272000

出　　处：《气象科技》2017年第5期925-929,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：2015年山东省气象局青年科研基金项目(2015SDQN08)资助

摘　　要：通过对2010年1月至2015年12月济宁市第一人民医院65083例上呼吸道感染病例和同期气象资料进行分析,研究上呼吸道感染与气象因素的关系。按实际上呼吸道感染发病数量将全年分为6个时段,每一时段内与上呼吸道感染发病人数相关性高的气象因素不同。应用逐步回归分析法基于6个时段分别建立了对上呼吸道感染发病的等级预报方程,确定了预报等级划分标准。应用预报方程进行等级回代验证,预报结果显示其对上呼吸道感染发病人数具有较强的预报能力。The data of 65083 cases of upper respiratory tract infection from January 2010 to December 2015 in the No. 1 people＇s Hospital of Jining, Shandong and the data of the meteorological data of the same period are analyzed, and the relationship between upper respiratory tract infection and meteorological factors is studied. According to the actual number of upper respiratory infections, the full-year is divided into 6 time periods. The meteorological factors with high correlation with upper respiratory tract infection are different in various periods. The stepwise regression analysis method is used to establish the grades forecast equation of upper respiratory tract infection in 6 time periods, and the criteria for classification of forecast grades are determined. The forecast equation is verified with the back substitution method, and the prediction results upper respiratory trac show that the forecast equation is more accurate for the number of patients with t infection.

关 键 词：上呼吸道感染 气象因素 回归法 预报检验 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]