高房价对行业全要素生产率的影响——来自中国工业企业数据库的微观证据  

The Impact of Housing Boom on Total Factor Productivity at Industrial Level:Micro Evidence from Chinese Industrial Enterprises Survey Data

作　　者：余静文[1] 谭静[2] 蔡晓慧 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,邮政编码430072 [2]上海大学经济学院,邮政编码200444 [3]浙江财经大学金融学院,邮政编码310018

出　　处：《经济评论》2017年第6期22-37,121,共17页Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"高房价对我国全要素生产率影响的机制分析及数量测度"(项目编号:71503186);国家社会科学基金重大项目"供给侧结构性改革与发展新动力研究"(项目编号:16ZDA006)的资助

摘　　要：1998年住房市场化改革以来,中国房价经历了快速增长,房地产部门成为国民经济支柱产业,而全要素生产率增长却在下滑。作为供给面的重要因素,全要素生产率是决定潜在经济增长的根本性力量。利用匹配的中国工业企业数据和35个大中城市宏观数据,本文探究了高房价对行业全要素生产率的影响,尝试从全要素生产率的视角分析高房价与中国潜在经济增长的关联。研究发现,首先,高房价对行业全要素生产率产生了负面影响,房价收入比提高10%,行业全要素生产率下降2.56%,这说明高房价并没有通过流动性效应改善资源配置效率,反而导致要素配置扭曲程度加大;其次,高房价通过拉高房地产投资收益,挤出了企业研发部门的资源投入,抑制了企业全要素生产率的改善,进而制约潜在经济增长。本文研究结果为房地产过度繁荣所产生的负面效应提供了新的证据。The housing price in China has experienced a rapid growth since the housing reform in1998.The real estate sector is regarded as the pillar industry in 2003.Meanwhile,the total factor productivity which is the fundamental factor for potential economic growth declines.This paper attempts to use Chinese industrial enterprises survey data combining with macro data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China to investigate the influence of housing boom on total factor productivity at industrial level and furthermore the relationship between housing boom and potential economic growth.The empirical results reveal that there is a negative effect of housing boom on total factor productivity.The liquidity effect led by housing boom does not improve the investment efficiency,but deteriorating the allocation efficiency instead.An increase of 10 percentage points in housing price-to-income ratio will lead to 2.56 percentage points decrease in total factor productivity at industrial level.Moreover,the rapid growth of housing price and high return on investment in real estate industry have attracted considerable resources into real estate sector and furthermore crowed out RD activities with high risk and long investment cycle.This could be a potential channel to explain the negative effect of housing boom on total factor productivity at firm level.This paper provides a new evidence about the impact of housing boom on real economy.

关 键 词：房产泡沫 经济增长 资源错配 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F299.23[经济管理—国民经济] F424