基于灰色数据包络分析法的水运低碳竞争力动态评价模型  

Dynamic evaluation model of water-transportation low-carbon competitiveness based on data envelopment analysis method and grey relational analysis method

作　　者：陈静[1,2,3] 张毅[2,3] 黄贤金 颜大伟[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学政府管理学院江苏绿色发展研究基地,江苏南京210023 [2]南京交通职业技术学院,江苏南京211188 [3]南京交院交通节能减排技术有限公司,江苏南京211188

出　　处：《环境污染与防治》2017年第11期1274-1277,1283,共5页Environmental Pollution & Control

基　　金：江苏高校哲学社会科学研究基金项目"基于PSR方法的江苏省低碳交通管理策略研究"(No.2017SJB0612);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(No.2017M611760);江苏省博士后科研资助计划项目(No.1601133C)

摘　　要：水运低碳发展的目标,一是促进水运业的有序发展,二是降低碳排放。因此核心科学问题是提高水运低碳竞争力。目前,国内外对水运低碳竞争力研究未有完善的理论与方法体系。鉴于此,从运输、排放和效率的视角入手,基于数据可获性、可比性、兼顾完备性与简明性、动态性等基本原则,构建水运低碳竞争力评价指标体系。该指标体系包括3个一级指标,分别是运输生产能力、总量控制能力和效率提升能力。借鉴灰关联分析法和数据包络分析法,建立水运低碳竞争力动态评价模型。运用该模型以2007—2014年江苏省水运业为研究对象,对其低碳竞争力水平进行评价分析,在此基础上构建水运低碳发展的钻石结构框架,其研究成果能为江苏省水运低碳发展战略提供决策依据。The goal of water-transportation low-carbon development is to promote the development of watertransportation industry and reduce carbon emissions. Therefore, the key scientific problem is to improve the watertransportation low-carbon competitiveness. At present, although some progress had been made on evaluation system of water-transportation low-carbon development in China,it was not perfect enough. In view of this,from the perspective of transport,emission and efficiency, based on basic principles such as the data availability, comparability, completeness and conciseness,and dynamics, evaluation index system of water-transportation low-carbon competitiveness was established. The index system included 3 first-level indicators, such as transport capacity,total-amount-control capacity and efficiency-improvement capacity. Using grey relational analysis and data envelopment analysis, dynamic evaluation model of water-transportation low-carbon competitiveness was established. By using the model, watertransportation industry in Jiangsu Province was used as the research object to evaluate its low carbon competitiveness level during 2007-2014. Finally, based on diamond competitiveness theory, the concrete measures for improving watertransportation low-carbon competitiveness were proposed. The research results provided decision basis for low-carbon development strategy.

关 键 词：水运低碳竞争力 动态评价 评价指标 灰关联分析法 数据包络分析法 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F552.7