市场不确定条件下煤制烯烃技术经济分析方法  

Techno-economic analysis method of coal to olefins process with market uncertainty

作　　者：张媛媛[1,2] 王永刚 田亚峻[2] 谢克昌 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)化学与环境工程学院,北京100083 [2]北京低碳清洁能源研究所,北京102209 [3]太原理工大学煤科学与技术教育部和山西省重点实验室,山西太原030024 [4]清华大学热能工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《化工学报》2017年第11期4288-4299,共12页CIESC Journal

基　　金：中国工程院重大咨询项目"碳约束条件下我国能源结构优化研究"(2016-ZD-07);"中国工程科技知识中心建设--能源专业知识服务系统"(CKCEST-2017-2-4)~~

摘　　要：建立了一种用于市场不确定条件下现代煤化工项目技术经济分析的方法。以煤制烯烃投资项目内部收益率、投资回收期、财务净现值、税后利润和单位利润CO2排放量为主要目标,以聚烯烃价格、煤炭价格、建设投资及碳税税率为表征市场不确定性的4个变量,建立煤制烯烃技术经济分析模型。根据该模型,绘制了预测公式曲面图和等高线图,并在此基础上开展了敏感性分析和不确定性分析。敏感性分析表明聚烯烃价格变化与煤炭价格变化对各评价指标的影响最显著;利用Monte Carlo模拟的方法量化考察了市场不确定条件下煤制烯烃技术的经济性以及各风险因素对评价指标的影响,分析结果表明,在市场低迷情况下,当聚烯烃价格处于6000~8000元/吨、煤炭价格处于100~300元/吨的低位时,煤制烯烃仍可盈利。A techno-economic analysis method for modern coal chemical projects under the condition of market uncertainty was established.With financial internal rate of return,payback period of investment,financial net present value,after-tax profits and the CO2 emissions per unit of after-tax profit of coal to olefins investment project as the main objective indicators,and with polyolefin price,coal price,construction investment and carbon tax rate as four variables characterizing market uncertainty,the techno-economic analysis models of coal to olefins were established.Based on these models,the surface graphs and contour graphs of the simulated equations were drew.The sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were further carried out.Sensitivity analysis shows that the influence of polyolefin price and coal price changes on each objective indicator is most remarkable.The economy of coal to olefins technology and the influence of various risk factors on the objective indicators under the condition of market uncertainty were quantitatively analyzed using the Monte Carlo simulation method.The results show that coal to olefins project is still profitable under the condition of market downturn,when polyolefin prices are 6000—8000 CNY·t^-1,and coal prices are 100—300 CNY·t^-1.

关 键 词：煤制烯烃 技术经济分析 市场不确定性 碳税 试验设计 模型 MONTE CARLO模拟 

分 类 号：TQ-9[化学工程]