我国玉米产销利益传导动力机制解析  

The Interest Transmission Mechanism of Corn Production and Sales

作　　者：罗超平[1] 但斌[2] 李凌杰[1] 尧琴 

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《经济纵横》2017年第11期97-105,共9页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“互联网+生鲜农产品供应链渠道建设中的政府作用与政策研究”(编号:15ZDB169);国家社会科学基金西部项目“农产品价格波动的纵向分配效应及产销利益协调机制研究”(编号:14XJY026);教育部人文社会科学研究项目“基于产业链主体的粮食价格波动分配效应及粮农利益保护机制研究”(编号:14YJC790162);中央高校基本科研基金重大培育项目“互联网+生鲜农产品供应链稳定性研究”(编号:SWU1709209);重庆市社会科学规划青年项目“重庆蔬菜价格波动的影响因素及调控对策研究”(编号:2013QNJJ17)的成果

摘　　要：在玉米产销利益传导机制理论研究基础上,利用VAR模型,实证分析近年来我国玉米产销利益传导机制,从而为玉米产业去库存、调结构提供理论支撑。研究显示,2008~2015年我国玉米产销利益传导不顺畅,"需求倒逼"的动力机制在批发环节表现显著,但不能及时传递到生产环节,"批发扩散"的动力机制总体表现为滞后期长和低效率,"供给推动"的动力机制效果不明显;玉米生产和零售环节的利益波动具有比较强烈的"惯性效应"。应加速提升玉米产销各环节的组织化程度,健全市场机制促进玉米产销联动;科学设置补贴制度,促进玉米饲用和工业消费用量增长;构建粮食企业现代市场营销体系,提升粮食企业营销能力;构建系统化的玉米交易信息平台,促进玉米产销环节资源合理配置。Based on the theoretical analysis of the interest transmission mechanism of corn production and sales in China in the past few years, this paper conducted an empirical test on the interest transmission mecha- nism of corn production and sales using the VAR model, so as to provide the theoretical support for the corn industry to destock and adjust the structure. The results show that the interest transmission mechanism of corn production and sales in China is not smooth from 2008 to 2015, the dynamic mechanism of ＂ demand - forc- ing＂ is obvious in the wholesale chain, but it cannot be transmitted to the production process in time, the dy- namic mechanism of ＂wholesale diffusion＂ is long lag and low efficiency in general, the dynamic mechanism of ＂supply - forcing＂ is failure basically and the interest fluctuations of corn production process and sales process have a relatively strong＂ inertial effect＂. Based on the above conclusions, the following suggestions are put forward： speeding up the degree of organization of all aspects of corn production and sales;improving the market mechanism to promote the linkage effect of corn production and sales ; setting up various types of subsi- dy system to promote corn feed and industrial consumption faster growth; constructing modern marketing sys- tem of grain enterprises to enhance their marketing capacity; building a systematic information platform for corn to promote the rational allocation of resources of corn production and marketing links.

关 键 词：玉米 产销利益 格兰杰检验 脉冲响应 

分 类 号：F324.6[经济管理—产业经济]