金融发展与储蓄增长的关联机制研究  

A Study on the Relationship between Financial Development and Saving Growth

作　　者：潘长春 张达平[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院,吉林长春130012 [2]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《经济纵横》2017年第11期123-128,共6页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"引领经济发展新常态的市场基础;体制机制和发展方式研究"(编号:15ZDC008);中国博士后科学基金面上项目"新常态下经济增长的趋势性;波动性与收敛性问题研究"(编号:2017M611305)的成果

摘　　要：依据生命周期假说,将金融发展变量引入储蓄模型中,定量分析金融发展、收入水平、人口结构对居民储蓄增长的影响作用。选取2001~2016年季度时间序列数据,通过构造ARDL边限检验解释说明各变量间长期协整关系,并使用动态最小二乘法(DOLS)对人均居民储蓄方程的长期系数进行估计,通过构造误差修正模型说明金融发展的短期影响机制。实证结果表明,从长期看金融发展对人均居民储蓄存在显著的促进作用,其波动在短期内给居民储蓄波动带来正向影响。We esis and analyze structure on the introduce the financial development to the saving model on account of the life -cycle hypoth- effect of variables which contain financial development, income level and population growth of savings. We select quarterly time series data from 2001 to 2016 to explain the coin- tegration between variables in our model by ARDL bounds test, then the coefficients of saving equation are es- timated by the dynamic least- square method （DOLS）, we can give the short -term influencing mechanism by constructing the error correction model. The results show that the financial development could play a signifi- cant role in promoting the household savings in the long - term, and its fluctuation has a positive impact on the household savings in the short- term.

关 键 词：金融发展 生命周期假说 ARDL边限检验 动态最小二乘 

分 类 号：F832.2[经济管理—金融学]