投资者情绪、资本管制与货币替代  

Investor Sentiment, Capital Regulation and Currency Substitution

作　　者：刘金全[1] 陈德凯[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学数量经济研究中心,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《当代财经》2017年第11期47-57,共11页Contemporary Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"引领经济发展新常态的市场基础;体制机制和发展方式研究"(15ZDC008)

摘　　要：对传统货币替代模型进行修正后的实证结果显示,投资者情绪和资本管制确实是影响我国货币替代程度的重要因素,资本管制程度的下降以及投资者避险情绪的上升均会导致我国货币替代率上升。用脉冲响应和方差分解方法做进一步分析可以发现,除货币替代的自身波动外,投资者情绪是导致我国货币替代率波动的最主要因素,而资本管制对货币替代率的冲击效应极其微弱且贡献率也极低。因此,货币当局应当密切关注投资者情绪的变化,适当加强短期资本管制,防范因避险情绪引起的货币替代风险对我国货币政策调控和经济发展造成冲击;同时应长期坚持资本账户自由化政策不动摇,从而谋求更多的全球化福利收益。After the modification of the traditional currency substitution model, the empirical resuits show that investor sentiment and capital regulation are important factors affecting the degree of China＇s currency substitution and that both a decline in the degree of capital regulation and a rise in investor risk aversion will lead to the rise of China＇ s currency substitution rate. Further analysis with the methods of impulse response and variance decomposition has found that besides the self fluctua- tion of currency substitution, investor sentiment is the leading factor resulting in China＇s currency substitution rate fluctuation, while the impact of capital regulation on currency substitution is very weak and the contribution rate is very low. Therefore, the monetary authorities should pay close attention to the changes in investor sentiment, strengthen properly the short-term capital regulation, and prevent currency substitution risk caused by risk aversion from impacting China＇s monetary policy adjustment and economic development. At the same time, the long-term capital account liberalization policy should always be insisted on, so as to seek more global welfare gains.

关 键 词：投资者情绪 资本管制 货币替代 资本账户开放 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学]