振动条件下XLPE绝缘热老化的可靠性评估  

Reliability Assessment on Thermal Aging of XLPE Insulation Under Vibration Condition

作　　者：张振鹏[1,2] 张明泽 刘骥[3,4] 李文杰 陈昕[3] 赵健康 

机构地区：[1]中国电力科学研究院,武汉430074 [2]电网环境保护国家重点实验室,武汉430074 [3]哈尔滨理工大学,哈尔滨150080 [4]工程电介质及其应用教育部重点实验室,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《高电压技术》2017年第11期3726-3731,共6页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：基金资助项目:国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2012CB723308);国网浙江省电力公司科技项目(5211DS15002B)~~

摘　　要：为提高交联聚乙烯(XLPE)电缆绝缘材料在联合应力老化条件下寿命预测的可靠度,并探究其失效概率分布,设计了2组加速老化试验,在不同老化应力条件下,对多个XLPE材料样片进行电阻退化数据测试。测试数据通过时间尺度函数转换后,应用线性Wiener过程进行数据建模;同时利用传统阿仑尼乌斯(Arrhenius)方程、逆幂准则与材料寿命之间的关系,结合极大似然函数,对线性Wiener过程模型参数进行估计,最后经理论计算得出试验所用XLPE电缆绝缘材料的失效概率密度曲线、可靠度曲线及不同组合应力条件下其寿命分布图,同时结合实际敷设电缆在复杂振动工作环境下的应力水平等因素,计算得到在最高允许温度(90℃)下,外部振动加速度为0.5 m/s^2时,XLPE电缆绝缘材料预期寿命为17.8年。In order to improve the life forecast reliability of XLPE insulation material under combined aging conditions and explore the failure probability distribution, two accelerated aging tests were carried out. Resistor degradation data were tested among some XLPE samples under different aging conditions. Nonlinear degradation data were transformed to linear degradation data with the time scale transformations. The linear Wiener process was applied to data modeling. Meanwhile, the relation of Arrhenius equation, inverse power criterion and material life was used, and the parameters of linear Wiener process model were estimated in combination with the maximum likelihood function. Finally, the probabil- ity density curve, the reliability curve, and the life distribution of XLPE were obtained by theoretical calculation. After considering the stress level and other factors of the actual laying cable under the complex vibration environment, the ex- pected lifetime of the XLPE cable insulation material was calculated to be 17.8 years at 90 ~C of the maximum allowable temperature and 0.5 m/s2 of the external vibration acceleration.

关 键 词：交联聚乙烯 联合老化 退化量 寿命预测 维纳过程 可靠性分析 

分 类 号：TM247[一般工业技术—材料科学与工程]