近60年叶尔羌河流域干旱演变特征分析  

Analysis on drought evolution characteristics of Yerqiang River basin in the near 60 years

作　　者：周粤 

机构地区：[1]新疆塔里木河流域希尼尔水库管理局,新疆库尔勒841000

出　　处：《水资源开发与管理》2017年第11期64-67,共4页Water Resources Development and Management

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费(课题编号:201501059)资助

摘　　要：旱涝灾害是制约叶尔羌河流域经济发展的重要因素,为预测研究区旱涝灾害变化趋势,本文选取1951—2015年叶尔羌河流域4个气象站的逐月降水量数据,利用标准化降水指数和小波分析方法,分析近60年来研究区旱涝演变特征。结果表明:该区旱涝事件发生频率高,不同时间尺度旱涝事件发生的平均频率为42.6%;在年代际尺度上,20世纪70年代干旱事件发生的频率最高,为25.2%;其次是2001—2015年,频率为22.7%,90年代洪涝事件发生的频率最高,为31%;研究区旱涝变化有4个特征时间尺度,分别为4年、10年、25年和31年,预测未来几年降水仍然偏多。The drought and flood disasters are the important factors which restrict the development of Yerqiang river basin.In the paper,the monthly rainfall data of four weather stations in Yerqiang River basin from 1951—2015 were selected in order to predict the change trend of drought and flood disasters in the research area. Standardized precipitation index and wavelet analysis method are utilized for analyzing the drought and flood evolution characteristics in the near 60 years. The results show that the frequency of drought and flood events is high in the area. The average frequency of drought and flood events in different time scales is 42. 6%. The frequency of droughts was the highest in the 1970 s,namely 25. 2% at the annual intergenerational scale. It is followed by 2001—2015,and the frequency is 22. 7%. The frequency of flood events was the highest in 1990 s,namely 31%. There are four characteristic time scales of drought and flood changes in the study area,respectively 4 years,10 years,25 years and 31 years. It is expected that the rainfall is still higher within several years in the future.

关 键 词：气象干旱 降水 标准化降水指数 小波分析 叶尔羌河流域 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]