基于威布尔分布的不同地区弹药贮存寿命评估——以催泪弹、爆震弹为例  

Estimation of Ammo Storage Life in Different Areas Based on Weibull Distribution——Taking Examples of Tear-gas Grenades and Stun Grenades

作　　者：陈佳欣 郭红霞[1] 刘禄胜 

机构地区：[1]武警工程大学,陕西西安710086

出　　处：《火工品》2017年第5期54-57,共4页Initiators & Pyrotechnics

基　　金：武警部队科研项目

摘　　要：针对当前武警基层部队在对防暴弹药的管理中存在大量浪费且报废困难的问题,选取海南省、陕西省、吉林省3个地区自然贮存一定时间段的催泪弹、爆震弹试验数据进行统计分析,准确评估了不同地区弹药贮存寿命。首先依据弹药在贮存状态下的失效特点,利用威布尔分布建立贮存可靠性模型,进而通过弹药实测数据,采用极大似然方法估计分布参数,最后在置信度为0.9、可靠度下限分别为0.9、0.85、0.8时,根据模型对不同地区弹药贮存可靠寿命进行预测。结果表明弹药的可靠贮存寿命均超过5a,该结论对武警部队防暴弹药贮存管理具有指导性意义。At present, the management of antiriot ammunition in paramilitary police units exits many problems of waste and scraping. This paper chose the testing data of tear-gas grenades and stun grenades, which had been storage in Hainan, Shannxi and Jilin Provinces for certain years, to conducting the statistical analysis. Firstly, according to the failure feature under the storage status, the mathematical model for storage reliability was established, based on Weibull distribution. Then, the actual ammo testing data was utilized to estimate the value of the distribution by adopting the maximum likelihood method. After that, ammo storage life in different areas with the model was estimated, under the confidence coefficient with a value of 0.9 and certain lower confidence limit of reliability with the values of 0.9, 0.85, 0.8. The result showed that the reliable storage life of ammunition is more than five years, which has guiding significance for ammo storage management.

关 键 词：催泪弹 爆震弹 贮存寿命 威布尔分布 预估 

分 类 号：TJ459[兵器科学与技术—火炮、自动武器与弹药工程]