PPP水利项目模糊期权价值评估及影响因素分析  

Evaluationand influence factors of fuzzy option value of PPP water conservancy projects

作　　者：雷震[1] 郝方 

机构地区：[1]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《水利经济》2017年第6期33-37,65,共6页Journal of Economics of Water Resources

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项基金(201301055)

摘　　要：PPP水利项目具有周期长、投资大及风险高的特点,借鉴模糊数学思想,构建模糊决策条件下的PPP水利项目期权价值评估模型,定量评估分阶段实施的项目模糊期权价值和模糊决策条件下项目整体价值的变动情况。结合实例分析,找出模糊期权价值的关键影响因素,强调PPP水利项目实施中应注重现金流价值管理。结果有助于政府和社会资本全面了解项目价值,积极参与项目实施,并合理应对潜在的不确定因素。The PPP water conservancy project is of long project cycle,large investment and high risk characteristics. Based on the idea of fuzzy mathematics,the evaluation model for option of PPP water conservancy projects is established under fuzzy condition,and the fuzzy option value of projects under staged construction and the change of the whole project value under fuzzy decision-making condition are quantitatively evaluated.Combined with case analysis,the key influence factors of the fuzzy option value are found,and it is emphasized that the implementation of PPP water conservancy projects should focus on the management of cash flow value. The results will help the government and social capital to fully understand the project value,and actively participate in the implementation of projects and reasonably response to potential uncertain factors.

关 键 词：PPP水利项目 模糊期权 蒙特卡洛 价值评估 

分 类 号：F403.7[经济管理—产业经济]