居民消费对劳动就业的影响:机理与例证  

Impacts of Household Consumption on Labor Employment:Mechanism and Example

作　　者：王东霞 孙雯霞 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学图书馆,山东济南250014 [2]山东财经大学经济学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2017年第6期98-105,共8页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"城镇化对劳动就业的影响效应及对策研究"(14BJY210);山东省社科规划研究项目"城镇劳动就业的影响因素研究--基于山东省的分析"(13CJJJ06);山东省软科学计划项目"创新驱动战略下山东省城镇化发展的就业效应研究"(2014RKB01359)

摘　　要：居民消费影响着劳动力的需求和供给。通过引导投资进行社会生产,能更好地提高投资的效率,平衡好两大部类的比例关系,实现生产与消费的协调发展,推动经济稳定增长和就业增加。实证分析表明,山东省居民最终消费所代表的居民消费总量对其劳动就业量有协整关系。长期中,居民最终消费的提高能够带动劳动就业,但短期内由于滞后性等因素导致居民消费的带动作用不明显,甚至为负。居民消费水平的提高往往伴随着经济发展、科技进步,先进技术在生产中的应用短期内可能对就业产生挤出效应,因此表现出居民消费总量对劳动就业短期上的负影响。但这种影响是短暂的,长期中,居民消费总量对劳动就业整体呈积极的促进作用。Household consumption affects the demand and supply of labor force. Social production through guiding investment can improve the efficiency of investment,balance the proportion of the two major categories,realize the coordinated development of production and consumption,promote stable economic growth and increase employment. The empirical analysis shows that the total consumption of residents represented by the final consumption of Shandong residents has a cointegration relationship with their labor and employment. In the long run,the increase of resident final consumption can promote labor employment,but in the short term,the leading role of resident consumption is not obvious or even negative because of lagging and other factors. The improvement of resident consumption level is often accompanied by economic development as well as scientific and technological progress,and the application of advanced technology in production may produce a crowding-out effect on employment in the short term,thus showing the negative impact of the total amount of resident consumption on labor employment in the short term. But this effect is short-lived,and the total consumption of residents has a positive role in promoting the overall employment in the long run.

关 键 词：居民消费 劳动就业 劳动力需求 劳动力供给 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]