人民币汇率错位及波动对中国机电行业的进口影响  

The Influence of RMB Exchange Rate Misalignment and Volatility on the Import of China's Electromechanical Industry

作　　者：金祥义 张文菲[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院,天津300071

出　　处：《经济与管理评论》2017年第6期137-143,共7页Review of Economy and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目"跨太平洋伙伴关系协定的演进及其对东亚区域经济一体化的影响"(项目编号:13YJCGJW007)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：近年来数据显示,中国机电行业在各行业进口总额中占有最大的比例,而行业进口量又受到汇率变动的影响,因此汇率微小的变动都将对机电行业造成巨大的影响,为了探究汇率错位及波动对机电行业进口的具体影响程度,利用2000-2016年相关经济变量的季度数据,通过建立Garch模型、协整方程并结合BEER实际汇率测算方法,得到了相关时间段人民币汇率错位和波动的季度数据,研究发现人民币汇率错位呈现出正负交替的现象,其数值在全球金融危机期间达到最大,从而表明不同的汇率错位程度对不同时期经济冲击的具体反应。此外,本文将汇率错位及波动加入进口方程式,拓展了传统的进口方程,并在此基础上研究了汇率错位及波动对机电行业进口量的影响,结果发现两者对机电行业进口量有着显著的负面影响。In recent years,the data shows that the import of China's mechanical and electrical industry which is affected by exchange rates change accounts for the largest proportion of the total import volume,and a small change in the exchange rate may have a huge impact on this industry.In order to explore the impact of exchange rate disalignment and volatility on import of this industry,this paper uses the quarterly data of the relevant economic variables from 2000 to 2016,and combines the Garch model with the cointegration equation and the BEER real exchange rate measurement method to obtain the quarterly data of disalignment and volatility of the RMB exchange rate in the relevant periods.The study finds that RMB exchange rate presents sign-alternating phenomenon with the maximum value during the global financial crisis,which indicates differemt degree of exchange rate disalignment responds to different economic shocks.In addition,this paper adds the exchange rate disalignment and volatility to the import equation,which expands the traditional import equation,and studies the impact of exchange rate disalignment and volatility on the imports of mechanical and electrical industry,and the results show that the two variables have a negative impact.

关 键 词：机电业进口 均衡汇率 汇率错位 汇率波动 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]