CMIP5模式中El Nino-EAWM关系的模拟对东亚冬季风模拟的影响  

Impact of simulation of El Nino-EAWM by CMIP5 models on the East Asian winter monsoon

作　　者：尹依雯 郭品文[1] 张攀全 沈沉[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室,南京210044

出　　处：《气象科学》2017年第2期205-212,共8页Journal of the Meteorological Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41030636)

摘　　要：本文利用统计学的方法,评估了17个参加第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)的海气耦合模式对东亚冬季风(EAWM)年际变化的模拟。结果表明:多数模式对东亚冬季风的年际变化有一定的模拟能力,其中对东亚大槽年际变化的模拟最好;模式对东亚冬季主要系统的年际变化在空间上的模拟好于强度,对强度的模拟以偏弱为主;通过综合评估得到模拟能力好的模式有:bcc-csm1-1,CCSM4,HadCM3,NorESM1-M。针对模式间对冬季风年际变化模拟能力差别较大的现象,选取了4个模拟能力最好的模式和5个最差的进行讨论;通过评估El Ni?o对东亚冬季环流的影响,发现模式对El Ni?o与EAWM之间相互关系(El Ni?o-EAWM)的模拟能力是模式间对冬季风年际变化模拟偏差较大的原因之一,即对El Ni?o-EAWM模拟好的模式对东亚冬季风年际变化的模拟也好。By using the statistical methods,the simulation of 17 coupled models derived from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project( CMIP5) on interannual variability of the East Asian Winter Monsoon( EAWM) was evaluated.Results show that most models have a certain simulation effects on the interannual variability of the EAWM,especially for the 500 hPa East Asian trough.The interannual variability of the main systems of EAWM is simulated better in space than in intensity,and the simulation on intensity is slightly weaker than the observations.The comprehensive evaluation proved the best simulation ability of bcc-csm1-1,CCSM4,HadCM3 and NorESM1-M.According to the large deviation of the interannual simulation ability among models,four best models and five worst models are selected to discuss.The results show that the simulation ability of models on relationship between El Ni1 o and EAWM( El Ni?o-EAWM) is key factor for the bias in the case of evaluating the influence of El Ni1 o on the circulation in East Asia winter.In other words,good interannual simulation ability on EAWM interannualvariability are attributed to the reasonable simulation of El Ni?o-EAWM.

关 键 词：东亚冬季风 年际变化 El Nino-EAWM 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]