深圳市流行性感冒与气象因素的关联性分析  

Association between meteorology and influenza in Shenzhen

作　　者：黄智峰 刘晓剑[2] 杨连朋 邹宇华 李烨[4] 蔡云鹏[4] 吴永胜[2] HUANG Zhi-feng;LIU Xiao-jian;YANG Lian-peng;ZOU Yu-hua;LI Ye;CAI Yun-peng;WU Yong-sheng(Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health, Guangdong Pharmaceutical University, Gaangzhou 510310, China;Department of lnformation, Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shenzhen 518000, China;Injury Prevention Research Centre, Medical College of Shan- tou University, Shantou 515000, China;Shenzhen Institutes of Advaneed Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shenzhen 518000, China)

机构地区：[1]广东药科大学公共卫生学院社会医学教研室,广东广州510310 [2]深圳市疾病预防控制中心信息科,广东深圳518000 [3]汕头大学医学院伤害预防研究中心,广东汕头515000 [4]中国科学院深圳先进技术研究院生物医学信息技术研究中心,广东深圳518000

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2017年第10期1035-1038,1043,共5页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划(2015AA020109)

摘　　要：目的探讨深圳市流行性感冒与气象因素的关联性。方法收集2013-2014年深圳市流感样病例发病资料、气象资料和外环境PM2.5浓度资料,利用散点图和建立广义相加模型分析气象因素与流行性感冒的关系。结果深圳市的流感高峰主要发生在周平均最低气温在20~27℃、相对湿度在70%~85%、周降雨总量在0~150 mm、周均温差为5.5℃左右的天气条件下。广义相加模型显示,最低气温、相对湿度、周降雨总量和周均温差是流感样病例的影响因素,其RR(95%CI)值分别为0.978(0.976~0.979)、1.005(1.004~1.006)、1.016(1.012~1.020)和1.028(1.023~1.033)。结论深圳市气象因素与流行性感冒之间具有一定的关联性。Objective To assess the association between meteorology and influenza.Methods Records of ILI,meteorological factors and PM2.5 data were collected in Shenzhen during 2013-2014.Scatter plot and generalized additive model were used to analyze the relationship between meteorological factors and influenza.Results The pinnacle of influenza in Shenzhen mainly occured when the lowest average temperature per week was 20-27℃,relative humidity was 70%-85%,total precipitation per week was 0-150 mm and mean temperature difference was about 5.5℃.Generalized additive model displayed the lowest average temperature,relative humidity,total precipitation per week and mean temperature difference were associated with the influenza-like illness.Their RR（95% CI） were 0.978（0.976-0.979）,1.005（1.004-1.006）,1.016（1.012-1.020） and 1.028（1.023-1.033）,respectively.Conclusions There may be a certain correlation between meteorology and influenza.

关 键 词：流感 人 气象因素 流行病学研究 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]