中国对外直接投资的发展阶段定位与影响因素分析  

Analysis of the Development Stage and Influencing Factors of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment

作　　者：任妮妮[1] 郑小玲[1] REN Nini;ZHENG Xiaoling(Economics School of AnHui University, Hefei, Anhui 230601, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽大学经济学院,中国合肥230601

出　　处：《上海商学院学报》2017年第4期40-46,共7页Business Economic Review

摘　　要：本文通过文献研究法给出了投资发展周期理论的确切内容,然后根据计算得到的人均NFDI和以1971年为基年1982—2015年的人均实际GDP,分析得出中国2007年进入投资发展周期理论的第三阶段,2015年进入投资发展周期理论的第四阶段,并且投资发展周期理论对中国的对外直接投资仍然具有较强的解释力。然后从母国角度分析对外直接投资决定因素,并利用chow检验,得出2000年是一个突变点,引入以2000年为节点的时间虚拟变量,以考察2000年开始的"走出去"战略对对外直接投资的影响。最后从实证结果并结合国际生产折衷理论,为提高我国对外直接投资的质量提出建议。With the help of Data Studies, the paper first makes The Investment Development Path clear. Then, according to the calculated NFDI per capita and the actual GDP per capita during 1982 to 2015 with 1971 as a base year, the author comes to a conclusion that China has entered the third stage of the Investment Development Path in 2007, and the fourth stage in 2015. In addition, the Investment Development Path still plays its leading role in explaining China＇s outward foreign direct investment. Analyze decisive factors of foreign direct investment from the perspective of mother country, and examine it through chow test. It shows that the Year 2000 is a point of change which can be used as dummy variable of time as the node is introduced to investigate how the ＂Go Globally＂ strategy, starting from 2000, affects foreign direct investment. Finally, this paper puts forward suggestions to improve the quality of China＇s foreign direct investment based on the results combing the eclectic theory of international production.

关 键 词：投资发展周期理论 人均实际GDP 阶段定位 影响因素 CHOW检验 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]