2005-2016年银川市风疹发病季节性特征分析  

Analysis on the seasonal characteristics of rubella in Yinchuan from 2005 to 2016

作　　者：雷静 时欣培[2] 苗志峰 李燕[3] 张伟宏[3] 

机构地区：[1]银川市卫生和计划生育委员会,宁夏银川750011 [2]宁夏医科大学,宁夏银川750014 [3]银川市疾病预防控制中心,宁夏银川750011

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2017年第22期4191-4194,4217,共5页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的通过分析银川市风疹发病的季节性特征,为制定更完善的风疹防控策略及措施提供科学依据。方法应用集中度法和圆形分布法探究银川市风疹发病的季节性规律,并比较风疹疫苗普种前后风疹发病季节性变化的趋势。结果2005-2016年银川市风疹的集中度为总M=0.682,疫苗普种前后M值依次为0.679、0.685。圆形分布集中趋势r值为总r=0.681,发病高峰日为5月19日,发病高峰期为3月29日-7月8日,高峰期长达101 d;疫苗普种前,r=0.678,发病高峰日及高峰期依次为5月17日,3月26日-7月7日,高峰期跨度为103 d;疫苗普种后,r=0.685,发病高峰日及高峰期依次为5月20日,3月31日-7月10日,高峰期跨度为101 d。分别对疫苗普种前后的M值、平均角α和高峰期跨度进行假设检验,得到检验值t和概率值P依次为:-0.753/0.446、2.966/<0.05和0.789/0.446。结论风疹的发病具有明显的季节性,发病高峰在3月下旬-7月上旬。疫苗的普遍接种在一定程度上改变了风疹的季节性特征,应根据风疹的流行特点及其变化趋势及时调整防控措施。Objective The aim of this study was to analyze the seasonal characteristics of rubella, in order to provide scientific basis to formulate more complete strategies and measures to control rubella. Methods The concentration ratio and ,circular distribution were used for studying the seasonality of rubella, and the change of seasonal pattern before and after the rubella vaccine were compared. Results The M value representing concentration ratio was 0.682 in general. M values for the two stages divided by immunization protection status were 0.679 and 0.685. As for circular distribution, r values in proper order were 0.681, 0.678 and 0.685. The different stages＇ peak incidence days were 19th May, 17th May, and 20th May. The peak period was from 29th March to 8th July, from 26a March to 7th July, and from 31th March to 10th July, successively. The span for peak duration were 101 days, 103 days and 101 days. Hypothesis test for M value, average angle and span for peak duration were done before and after immunization protection, t value/P value in turn were -0.753/0.446, 2.966/〈0.05, 0.789/0.446. Conclusion Rubella had obvious seasonal characteristic. The peak period arose in late march to early July. Universal vaccination had changed the seasonal feature of Rubella. We need to adjust the prevention and control measures according to the epidemic characteristics of rubella and its trend in timely.

关 键 词：风疹 季节性特征 集中度 圆形分布法 

分 类 号：R183.3[医药卫生—流行病学]