禁贸后非法象牙贸易发展趋势预测  

Prediction of Trends in Illegal Ivory Trade under China's Commercial Ivory Ban Policy

作　　者：姜南[1] 王邱文 

机构地区：[1]南京森林警察学院,南京210023

出　　处：《野生动物学报》2017年第4期701-704,共4页CHINESE JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目<生态文明制度改革视野下的象牙贸易犯罪治理研究>(编号15FXD002)的成果

摘　　要：中国象牙商业性禁贸政策实施后,非法象牙贸易的发展趋势可能出现3个阶段:首先在象牙商业性禁贸预期形成阶段,由于象牙加工、销售企业清仓甩货而拉低象牙价格,从而在客观上抑制非法象牙贸易;其次,在象牙商业性禁贸实施初期,由于合法象牙制品消失而导致非法象牙价格上升,以及国际非法象牙贸易网络等因素的综合影响,可能导致非法象牙贸易增多;第三,在象牙商业性禁贸实施一定时间后,非法象牙贸易将得到严格的控制并逐渐趋向消亡。为了保障象牙商业性禁贸目标的实现,中国需要加强公众生态文明意识的培养、增加野生动物执法相关资源的配置、加强与邻国在打击非法象牙贸易领域的合作。The trend of illegal ivory trade could vary in three phases after implementation of a Commercial Ivory Ban by the government of China. In the first phase,illegal ivory trade would be restrained because the legal ivory from ivory processing and marketing companies would flood markets and lower prices. In the second phase,due to the disappearance of legal ivory from markets,prices of illegal ivory would increase,and international illegal ivory trade and internet factors could also influence the market,leading to increase of illegal ivory trade. In the third phase,after a period of implementation,illegal ivory trade would be strictly controlled and gradually would disappear.To achieve the policy＇ s goal,China should strengthen public awareness of ecological civilization,invest more resource to wildlife enforcement,and cooperate with its neighbor states on law enforcement.

关 键 词：停止象牙商业性贸易 野生动植物执法 政策研究 国际合作 

分 类 号：F46[经济管理—产业经济]