中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及其防控对策  

Risk characteristics and control technology measures of drought disaster in Southern China

作　　者：张强[1] 姚玉璧[1,2] 王莺 王素萍[1] 王劲松[1] 杨金虎[1,2] 王静[1] 李忆平 尚军林[2] 李文举[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所/甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室/中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,兰州730020 [2]甘肃省定西市气象局,定西743000

出　　处：《生态学报》2017年第21期7206-7218,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB430206);公益性行业(气象)科研重大专项(GYHY201506001-6);国家自然科学基金(41575149)

摘　　要：应用中国南方区域14省区市252个国家基本气象站1961—2015年逐日地面气象观测资料及干旱灾害资料,研究中国南方干旱灾害影响的时空变化特征,分析中国南方干旱灾害风险变化特征,提出干旱灾害风险防控策略与防御对策。结果表明:近55年中国南方区域降水量呈现波动变化,降水量线性拟合趋势特征不明显。但进入21世纪后南方区域平均降水量明显偏少,且平均降水量年际振荡幅度增大。近55年研究区气温呈显著上升趋势,南方平均地表气温升高速率高于全球地表升温速率;研究区气温从1976年开始持续上升,气温升高的突变年在1997年。重旱风险高发区主要集中于西南,随着气候变暖,干旱灾害频率、强度和受旱面积均增加,干旱灾害风险增大。气温突变后次高干旱灾害风险区明显扩大。未来10年(2016—2025年)中国南方地区的干旱发生频率可能升高。因此,要加强干旱灾害风险管理,生态环境脆弱区域实施生态环境修复,农业主产区域以保障粮食安全为主,解决水资源时空分布不均和资源供需加剧矛盾,提高干旱灾害风险防控水平。Using daily surface meteorological observation and drought disaster data from 252 national basic meteorological stations located in 14 provinces in Southern China from 1961 to 2015, temporal-spatial variation characteristics of drought disaster influence and the risk change of drought disaster were studied. Based on these analyses, the control strategy and defense countermeasures for drought disaster risks are put forward. The results indicated that annual precipitation in Southern China fluctuated from 1961 to 2015 and no obvious linear trends. However, the average annual precipitation in Southern China is less than that in the period before 21st century, and its oscillation amplitude is increasing. The annual average temperature in the research region showed significant upward trend throughout 1961-2015, and the average surface temperature increasing rate was higher than that of the global average. The temperature has increased since 1976 in the research region, and a temperature mutation point occurred in 1997. Areas with higher risks of drought disaster include most regions in southwest China. With the global warming, the drought frequency and intensity and the drought affected areas have been increasing, as well as the risk of drought disaster. The risk area of secondary high drought disaster was significantly enlarged after the temperature mutation point in 1997. During the next 10 years （2016-2025）, the drought disaster frequency in Southern China could increase. Therefore, the following management measures should be carried out： （1） drought disaster risk management should be strengthened; （2） areas with fragile ecological environment should be restored; （3） major agricultural production areas should be given priority for food production security; （4） the uneven temporal-spatial distribution of water resources and aggravating contradictions between supply and demand should be resolved; and （5） the level of drought disaster risk prevention and control should be improved.

关 键 词：干旱 灾害风险 空间特征 对策 中国南方 

分 类 号：S423[农业科学—植物保护]