1975-2015年青海省居民死亡率变化及其差别分解分析  

Analysis on the trend and difference decomposition of mortality in Qinghai residents from 1975 to 2015

作　　者：周敏茹[1] 岳建宁[1] 许志华[1] 沙琼玥 李晓萍[1] 马福昌[1] 周素霞[1] 郭淑玲[1] 郑莹 

机构地区：[1]青海省疾病预防控制中心慢病所,青海省西宁810007

出　　处：《中国慢性病预防与控制》2017年第10期726-728,733,共4页Chinese Journal of Prevention and Control of Chronic Diseases

摘　　要：目的了解1975-2015年青海省居民死亡率变化特征及其影响因素,为全省卫生规划的制定提供科学依据。方法用Vfp 6.0软件对青海省1975-2015年3次死因回顾性调查资料进行统计分析,计算粗死亡率、标化死亡率及年龄别死亡率,率的比较用χ2检验,用SPSS 22.0统计软件进行计算;同时用Excel 2010软件采用死亡率差别分解法计算青海省人群死亡率变化中人口因素与非人口因素所占的比例。结果近40年来青海省人群粗死亡率先降后升,其中1975-2006年下降了31.64%,2006-2015年上升了5.08%;但标化死亡率逐年下降,其中1975-2006年下降了30.77%,2006-2015年下降了21.01%。分年龄别死亡率结果表明,1975-2006年70岁以前各年龄组死亡率均下降,70岁及以后则上升;而2006-2015年,除25~岁年龄组略有上升外,各年龄组死亡率均有不同程度的下降。率的差别分解分析结果表明,1975-2006年粗死亡率的下降全部为非人口因素,人口因素反而使其上升,二者作用综合后使死亡率下降了257.24/10万;2006-2015年非人口因素同样使死亡率持续下降,但由于人口老龄化加剧,综合非人口因素后使死亡率上升了28.26/10万。结论青海省将逐步面临人口老龄化,但非人口因素(医疗保障、疾病预防控制及诊疗水平)的作用也将进一步增强,因此未来一段时间内青海省人群总死亡率将维持在目前水平或略有升高。Objective To understand the trend and influencing factors of mortality in Qinghai residents from 1975 to 2015 and to provide the science evidence for the health planning of whole province.Methods The data of three large-scale retrospective surveys in Qinghai province from 1975 to 2015 were analyzed by Vfp 6.0 software,the crude mortality,standardized and age-specific mortalities were calculated,the χ2 test was used to analyze the rates by SPSS 22.0 software.The difference decomposing method was utilized to calculate the proportions of demographic and non-demographic factors for the mortality of Qinghai province,the used software was Excel 2010.Results In Qinghai province,the crude mortality from 1975 to 2006 decreased 31.64%,and from 2006 to 2015 increased 5.08%; but the standardized mortality from 1975 to 2006 and from 2006 to 2015 reduced 30.77% and21.01%,respectively.From 1975 to 2006,the different age mortalities in 70 years old groups reduced,but ≥70 years old groups increased; from 2006 to 2015,the different age mortalities only in 25 years old group increased slightly,but in other age groups declined to some extent.The rate difference decomposition analysis showed that from 1975 to 2006,the crude mortality declined due to non-demographic factors,but the demographic factors resulted in the increase of crude mortality,however,the demographic plus non-demographic factors might decrease the crude mortality by 257.24/100 000; from 2006 to 2015,the non-demographic factors might decrease the crude mortality,but the aging population plus non-demographic factors might enhance the crude mortality by 28.26/100 000.Conclusion In the future,there will be the trend of aging population in Qinghai province,but the effects of non-demographic factors（medical security,the levels of disease prevention,control and diagnosis and treatment） will be enhanced,so the total mortality in Qinghai province will maintain the current level or slightly rise in the coming years.

关 键 词：死亡率 标化死亡率 变化趋势 率的差别分解法 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]