省域碳排放影响因素分析及减碳机制探讨——以浙江省为例  

Influencing Factors and Reduction Mechanism of Carbon Emissions in the Provincial Range: A Case Study of Zhejiang Province

作　　者：魏丹青[1] 黄炜[1] 曹植[2,3] WEI Danqing;HUANG Wei;CAO Zhi(Zhejiang Economic Information Center, Hangzhou Zhejiang 310006, China;Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省经济信息中心,浙江杭州310006 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]中国科学院大学,北京100049

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第12期14-18,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：浙江省科技计划项目一般软科学研究项目"浙江省碳总量目标制定和区域分解方法研究--基于浙江省温室气体清单数据实证分析研究"(2016C35008);浙江省自然科学基金青年基金项目"基于分布式大数据技术的省市县温室气体清单应用研究"(Q17D010012)

摘　　要：论文基于1990—2015年浙江省碳排放时间序列数据,采用STIRPAT模型,探讨驱动浙江碳排放量增长的主要影响因素和各因素的影响程度,明确碳排放控制的主要领域。结果表明人均GDP、人口规模、能源强度、能源结构、产业结构对碳排放量增加有正向驱动作用,而城镇化率对碳排放量增加有负向驱动作用。人均GDP和人口规模对碳排放量增长的贡献最大,但2000年后人口规模的驱动作用逐渐减弱,经济规模扩大成为碳排放量的主要增长因素。能源强度和城镇化率对碳排放量减少的贡献最大,能源结构的贡献率较低。基于此,提出了提升经济发展质量、促进城镇发展转型、提高能源管理效率等具有针对性的减碳对策。Analysis of carbon emission factor is an important theoretical basis for a province to establish total carbon emissions and carbon intensity control system. The article calculated the quantity of carbon emission of Zhejiang Province based the quantity of energy consumption from 1990 to 2015 by the formula of carbon emission. Based on the STIRPAT model, this paper discusses the main influence factors to growth of carbon emissions and calculates the influence rate of each factor. Then main areas of carbon emission control were explored by the regression model analysis. The results showed that the elastic coefficient of driving factor such as per capita GDP, population, energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure which had the positive driving effect for carbon emissions. The elastic coefficient of driving factor such as urban development had negative driving effect for carbon emissions. Per capita GDP and population make the greatest contribution to carbon emissions growth, while the driving force of population was gradually weakening after 2000. And improving the level of urbanization and decreasing the energy intensity play a major role in decreasing carbon emissions. Therefore, as a valid path to realize win-win targets of regional economic development and carbon emission reduction, this paper proposed several policy suggestions on how to reduce carbon emissions, including enhancing the quality of economic development, promoting new type of urbanization, and improving energy efficiency.

关 键 词：浙江省碳排放 STIRPAT模型 影响因素 贡献分析 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]