人口相关因素对碳排放的影响研究——基于变截距模型的实证分析  

Research on the Impact of Population-Related Factors on Carbon Emission: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Varying-Intercept Model

作　　者：王雅楠[1] 孙养学[1] 李威 WANG Yanan;SUN Yangxue;LI Wei(College of Economies and Management, Northwest A＆F University, Yangling ShaarLxi 7 t 2100, China;College of Management and Economies, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学经济管理学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《生态经济》2017年第12期19-23,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：西北农林科技大学科研启动资金项目"中国二氧化碳排放影响因素的时空特征及区域差异研究"(2452016161);中央高校基本业务费人文社会科学项目"农业碳排放区域空间差异及协同减排路径研究"(2017RWYB06)

摘　　要：基于1997—2012年的30个省份的面板数据,采用STIRPAT模型研究人口相关因素对二氧化碳排放的影响。通过面板数据变截距模型进行回归发现,大部分省份的人口规模、人均消费支出、能源强度和城镇化对碳排放有正影响,只有北京和广东的能源强度对碳排放是负影响,说明可能存在能源回弹效应。老龄化因素只在六个省份与碳排放有显著的正相关关系,这是因为老年人口的增加导致对相关产品和服务的需求增加。家庭规模在大部分省份对碳排放的影响是负向的,说明随着家庭规模的缩小会增加碳排放。Based on the panel data of 30 provinces from 1997 to 2012, this paper studies the effects of population-related factors on carbon dioxide emissions by STIRPAT model. According to the regression by the panel data varying-intercept model, this paper finds that the population size, per capita consumption, energy intensity and urbanization have a positive effect on carbon emissions in most of provinces. The effect of energy intensity on carbon emission only in Beijing and Guangdong is negative, which means that there may exist energy rebound effect. Aging population and carbon emissions has a significant positive correlation in six provinces. This may be attributed to the fact that the increase in the elderly population leads to increased demand for related products and services. Household size has negative effect on carbon emissions in most provinces, which indicates carbon emissions will be increased with the shrinking of household size.

关 键 词：STIRPAT模型 变截距模型 人口因素 碳排放 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]