中国温带地区不同界限温度下农业热量资源的时空演变  

Spatio-temporal variation of agricultural thermal resources at different critical temperatures in China's temperate zone

作　　者：张煦庭 潘学标[1] 徐琳[1] 魏培[1] 胡琦[1] 尹紫薇[1] 邵长秀[1] ZHANG Xuting;PAN Xuebiao;XU Lin;WEI Pei;HU Qi;YIN Ziwei;SHAO Changxiu(College of Resources and Environmental Sciences, China Agricultural University, Beijing 100193, China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《资源科学》2017年第11期2104-2115,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41475104);国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41401048);国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506016)

摘　　要：受全球气候变暖影响,农业生产面临较大风险,研究农业热量资源的时空演变对农业生态环境、作物布局和种植制度等具有重要意义。本研究利用中国温带地区及外延200km范围内840个气象站点1960—2015年逐日气温资料,采用气象插值软件ANUSPLIN空间插值,基于偏差法计算了格点尺度稳定通过不同界限温度(≥0℃、5℃、10℃、15℃和20℃)的起止日期、持续日数和积温,综合分析了气候变化背景下农业热量资源的时空格局及不同时段一年两熟制、冬小麦和春玉米可种植区的变化。结果表明:温带地区均呈现出初日提前、终日推迟、持续日数和积温增加的趋势,≥15℃的热量资源变幅最大;不同界限温度初日自南向北推迟,终日提前、持续日数和积温逐渐减小。起止日期和积温年代距平从1990年开始正负转变,1960—1980年与2000年以后差异显著;寒温带持续日数和积温低值区域减少、中温带和暖温带高值范围增大。时段Ⅱ(1990—2015年)温带地区一年两熟制、冬小麦和春玉米可种植区相比时段Ⅰ(1960—1989年)存在不同程度北扩。Agricultural production is facing serious risks under global warming. The spatiotemporal variation of agricultural thermal resources is of great significance to examine agricultural ecological environment, crop pattern and cropping system. In this study, the data, including daily mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, are obtained from 840 meteorological stations during 1960--2015 in China＇ s temperate zone within a range of 200km. We analyzed spatio-temporal variation of agricultural thermal resources and changes in planting boundaries of double cropping regions, as well as winter wheat and spring maize. In addition, we, with the aid of ANUSPLIN interpolation software, used a deviation method to calculate start date, end date, the number of duration days, and accumulated temperature passing stably different critical temperatures （0℃, 5℃, 10℃, 15℃ and 20℃ ）. ANUSPL1N interpolation software was used in local statistical modeling of smooth thin plate spline function, considering longitude, latitude and altitude. Compared with the Inverse Distance Weight method and the Ordinary Kriging method, ANUSPLIN interpolation method was more suitable in the research on time series of meteorological data. Results show that it became the trend that start dates were advanced, end dates delayed, the number of duration days and accumulated temperature increased in China＇ s temperate zone, and the greatest change was observed in areas with ≥15℃ thermal resources; start dates at different critical temperatures delayed from south to north, end dates were advanced, and the number of duration days and accumulated temperature decreased. The number of duration days, as well as accumulated temperature anomalies had a shift from negative value to positive value, and there were significant differences between 1960s--1980s and 2000s--2015; a rising trend was found in high value areas of thermal resources in middle and warm temperate zones, while a decreasing trend was in low value areas in cold t

关 键 词：温带地区 界限温度 农业热量资源 种植界限 气候变化 中国 

分 类 号：S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]