中国典型观赏植物花期模型建立及过去花期变化模拟  

Development of phenological models for simulating past flowering phenology of typical ornamental plants in China

作　　者：仲舒颖[1] 葛全胜[1] 戴君虎[1] 王焕炯[1] ZHONG Shuying;GE Quansheng;DAI Junhu;WANG Huanjiong(Key Laboratory of Land SuoCace Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 1130101, China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《资源科学》2017年第11期2116-2129,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41401071;41601047);国家重大科研仪器研制项目(41427805)

摘　　要：建立花期物候模型可实现观赏植物花期的精确预报,为"樱花节"、"桃花节"等时令旅游活动的开展提供重要依据。本研究选择花期观赏价值高、分布范围广泛的四种典型观赏植物进行研究,包括桃(Amygdalus persica)、杏(Armeniaca vulgaris)、紫荆(Cercis chinensis)和紫丁香(Syringa oblata)。利用这些植物在中国42个站点的始花期和末花期观测资料及对应的气象资料,建立并检验了可模拟不同站点和年份始花期和末花期的时空物候模型,并利用该模型重建了1962—2013年四种植物的始花期、末花期和花期长度序列,分析了其时空变化特征。结果表明:(1)时空物候模型能够较准确地模拟大区域和长时间的花期变化,对始花期、末花期和花期长度模拟的均方根误差多在4~6d之间;(2)模拟得到的花期物候存在一定的地理分布规律,其中随纬度的变化最为显著。纬度每升高1°,始花期和末花期推迟1.23~4.46d,花期长度缩短0.07~1.47d;(3)过去50年,所有植物平均始花期、末花期均显著提前,提前趋势在(0.95~1.61)d/10a之间。紫丁香始花期与末花期的提前趋势空间差异较小,而其他三种植物的花期提前趋势在分布区北部明显强于南部;(4)花期长度在过去50年间变化较弱,除紫丁香表现出较强的延长趋势(0.20d/10a)外,其他三种植物的花期长度变化趋势在(-0.01~0.07)d/10a之间,且具有很强的空间异质性。这些研究结果为典型观赏植物花期物候模拟及对气候变化的响应评估提供了科学依据。Developing flowering phenological models is conducive to the accurate simulation of flowering periods of ornamental plants and could provide basis for seasonal flowering tourism events. We investigated four widespread ornamental plants with high aesthetic value, namely, Amygdalus persica, Armeniaca vulgaris, Cercis chinensis and Syringa oblate. Using the first flowering date （FFD）and end of flowering date （EFD）data of these species and corresponding meteorological data at 42 sites, we developed and validated the spatiotemporal model of FFD and EFD and reconstructed data series of FFD, EFD and flowering duration （FD） of the four species over their distribution area from 1962 to 2013. At last, we analyzed spatiotemporal patterns of mean phenophases and phenological changes. The results showed that the spatiotemporal model was able to simulate the flowering phenology accurately on large spatial and temporal scales with root-mean-square-error of about 4 -- 6 days. The simulated mean FFD, EFD and FD followed certain geographical gradients. Latitude was the major factor influencing flowering phenology. The FFD and EFD were delayed by 1.23- 4.46 days and the FD was extended by 0.07- 1.47 days per degree increase of latitude. Over the past 50 years, the mean FFD and EFD of all species became earlier with a rate of 0.95 -- 1.61 days decade-1. The advance of S. oblate FFD and EFD exhibited no obvious spatial pattern, while the changes of FFD and EFD for the other three species showed a noticeable spatial variation with clearer advance in the north than in the south. The FD of S. oblate extended by 0.20 days decade-1, while the other three species showed very weak trends of-0.01 -- 0.07 days decade -1. The changes of FD showed strong spatial heterogeneity. These results provided a scientific basis for simulating flowering phenology of typical ornamental plants and assessing their phenological responses to climate change.

关 键 词：花期物候 典型观赏植物 时空变化 物候模型 中国 

分 类 号：S68[农业科学—观赏园艺]