基于改进未确知测度法的光伏发电项目应急能力成熟度评估模型研究  

Research on Maturity Evaluation Model of Emergency Capacity in Photovoltaic Generation Project Based on Improved Unascertained Measure

作　　者：李丹阳[1] 赵云胜[1] 史小棒 张超 章志超 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学工程学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]中建三局第二建设工程有限公司,湖北武汉430074 [3]中冶南方工程技术有限公司,湖北武汉430223

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2017年第5期117-122,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项基金项目(201211039-4)

摘　　要：为实现对光伏发电项目应急能力的系统分析和科学评估,基于未确知数学原理,结合施工作业特点,构建光伏发电项目应急能力成熟度评估模型。利用成熟度理论划分光伏发电项目应急能力成熟度等级,并建立评估指标体系;应用盲数和未确知测度理论改进未确知测度模型,融合熵权法建立量化的应急能力成熟度等级测度方法。结合某光伏发电项目评估其应急能力成熟度,结果表明改进方法适用性强、便于操作、贴近实际情况;利用评估指标成熟度雷达模型图,直观找出应急管理过程中的薄弱环节,实现应急精细化管理。To achieve systematic analysis and scientific evaluation of emergency capacity in photovoltaic generation project,a maturity evaluation model of emergency capacity is established by combining the theory of unascertained mathematics and the characteristics of construction work. The maturity level of emergency capacity is divided according to the maturity theory,and then the evaluation index system of maturity of emergency capacity is developed for photovoltaic generation project. An improved unascertained measurement model based on the theories of blind number and uncertainty measurement in conjunction with the entropy method is used to obtain the maturity level of emergency capability in a quantitative manner. An example of a photovoltaic generation project shows that the improved method is performed well in feasibility,operation and the result is close to reality situation. With the aid of maturity radar model diagram for evaluation indexes,this study identifies weak links in the emergency management process, which is useful to achieve refined management in emergency.

关 键 词：光伏发电项目 应急能力 成熟度模型 未确知测度 盲数 熵权法 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]