产业链视角下山东省转变渔业增长方式研究  

Study on the way of changing fishery growth in Shandong province from the perspective of industry chain

作　　者：闫金玲[1] 韩立民[2] 王波[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003 [2]中国海洋大学管理学院,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2017年第4期59-66,共8页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：山东省农业重大应用技术创新项目"山东省远洋渔业发展战略研究"的资助

摘　　要：利用1993-2015年山东省渔业统计数据,深入分析了山东省渔业产业发展概况,并采用协整检验和VAR模型,从产业链角度研究渔业三次产业对渔业经济增长的贡献度及影响路径。主要结论:山东省渔业产业结构逐步优化但仍以一产为主;渔业三次产业与渔业增长之间存在长期均衡关系且渔业第二产业对渔业经济增长的影响要大于第一、三产业;不同产业对渔业经济增长的影响冲击程度存在差异性,渔业第一、二产业的发展对渔业经济增长的影响波动大于第三次产业。结果表明:短期来看,渔业第一产业是促进渔业经济增长的主要推动力,但长期来看,渔业第一产业因受资源环境约束增强,对渔业经济增长的影响逐渐减弱,而渔业流通业、渔业服务业、渔业工业和建筑业对渔业经济增长的作用程度逐步增强,成为推动渔业经济发展主要力量。Based on the fishery statistics of Shandong province in 1993-2015, this paper analyzes the development of fishery industry in Shandong province, and uses cointegration test and VAR model to study the contribution and influence path of fishery three industries to fishery economic growth from the perspective of industrial chain. The main conclusions are as follows： Firstly, the fishery industry structure in Shandong province is gradually optimized but the primary industry is still the main part. Secondly, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the three major industries and fishery growth, and the impact of fishery secondary industry on fishery economic growth is greater than that of the first and tertiary industries. Thirdly, the impact of different industries on the economic growth of fisheries is different, and the impact of the development of fishery first and second industries on fishery economic growth is greater than that of the third industry. The results show that in the short term, the fishery primary industry is the main driving force to promote the economic growth of fishery. However, in the long run, the fishery primary industry is weakened by the restriction of resources and environment, and the impact on fishery economic growth is weakened. Service industry and fishery industry and construction industry on the role of fishery economic growth will be gradually increased, which will be the main force to promote the development of fishery economy.

关 键 词：产业链 渔业增长方式 VAR模型 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F326.416[经济管理—产业经济]