中国沿海省份海参养殖业经济区域类型初探及产量预测分析  

Preliminary discussion on regional types of Chinese sea cucumber aquaculture industry economy in coastal provinces and predictive analysis of yield

作　　者：彭道民 慕永通[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学水产学院,山东青岛266003

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2017年第4期67-72,共6页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：国家现代农业产业技术体系建设贝类产业经济子项目(CARS-48-09B)资助

摘　　要：论文首先运用灰色系统理论中关联分析和聚类分析方法,对我国海参养殖业经济评价指标和各沿海省份海参养殖产业的发展区域类型进行分析。随后运用预测模型对2017-2019年我国海参产量进行了预测。关联分析结果显示:各影响因素的大小依次为海参养殖面积(0.8004)>海参养殖产量(0.7903)>海水养殖专业从业人员(0.7479)>海参苗种数量(0.6498)。聚类分析结果显示:我国海参养殖业的发展区域类型大致可划分为三个区域类型,其中属于I类有山东和辽宁,福建、广东、浙江和河北属于II类,江苏属于III类。预测分析结果显示:我国2017-2019年海参养殖产量为29.00×10~4-37.01×10~4吨,产量呈增长趋势,年均增长率为12.97%。This paper is firstly based on Grey relationship and Grey constellation cluster method of Grey system theory to analyze the economic evaluation index of Chinese sea cucumber aquaculture industry and the regional types of sea cucumber aquaculture industry in coastal provinces. Then the prediction model is used to predict the yield of Chinese sea cucumber during 2017 to 2019. The Grey relationship results indicate that the greatest factor comes from sea cucumber aquaculture areas （0.8004） 〉sea cucumber aquaculture production （0.7903） 〉mariculture professional labor （0.7479） 〉sea cucumber seedling number （0.6498）. The Grey constellation cluster results indicate that sea cucumber aquaculture industry economy can be divided into three types. Shandong and Liaoning are class Ⅰ. Following by Fujian, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Hebei respectively are class Ⅱ. Finally Jiangsu is class Ⅲ. The prediction model results show that sea cucumber aquaculture yield is 29.00× 104-37.01×104t during 2017 to 2019, the yield is increasing and the average annual growth rate is 12.97%.

关 键 词：海参养殖业 灰色关联 灰色星座聚类 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F326.413[经济管理—产业经济]