基于层次分析的库区溢油风险模糊综合评估  

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation of Oil Spill Risk in Port Area Based on Analytical Hierarchy Process

作　　者：刘俊稚 王陆军 葛亚明 周燕 孙静亚 

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋大学海洋科学与技术学院,浙江舟山316022 [2]浙江海洋大学创新应用研究院,浙江舟山316022 [3]浙江省海洋科学院,杭州310012

出　　处：《中国航海》2017年第3期113-117,共5页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家海洋公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(20130512)

摘　　要：在概述现有溢油风险评估方法的基础上,提出基于层次分析的模糊综合评估模型的潜在优势,详细介绍其构建方法,并以舟山岙山石油储运库区为例进行应用示范。建立适合的溢油风险评估指标体系,确立评估模型的因素集和评估集及各指标的隶属度和权重,利用层次分析法对所建指标体系进行逐级评估,得到模型综合评估结果。结果表明:在设定作业情景下,岙山库区综合溢油风险介于较小风险与中度风险之间。通过对各级指标风险值进行深入分析,进一步识别其中的重点潜在溢油风险隐患,并提出有针对性的溢油风险防范建议。模型的建立和应用能为岙山石油储运库区及其他存在多风险源的海域的溢油风险评估与防范提供科学指导和技术支持。The current oil spill risk evaluation methods,particularly Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation models based on Analytic Hierarchy Process（ AHP-FCE）,are reviewed. The country＇s largest oil reserve and transportation base,Aoshan oil port（ Zhoushan,Zhejiang Province）,is introduced as a study case. The analysis results indicate that,under the real condition of Aoshan oil port and in the setting scenario,the comprehensive oil spill risk is between minor and medium. By analyzing the intermediate evaluation results at all levels,the key potential oil spill risk sources are identified and more purposeful risk prevention measures are put forward accordingly. The AHP-FCE model could provide theoretical basis and technical support for oil spill risk evaluation and prevention in Aoshan area and other marine areas with various oil spill risk sources.

关 键 词：溢油风险评估 模糊综合评估 层次分析 岙山国家战略石油储备基地 

分 类 号：X55[环境科学与工程—环境工程] P76[天文地球—海洋科学]