中国进口原油海运网络连通可靠性  

Connectivity Reliability of Maritime Transportation Network for Importing Crude Oil to China

作　　者：吕靖[1] 王爽[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《中国航海》2017年第3期118-124,共7页Navigation of China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71473023);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(11JZD049);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金(16YJAZH030)

摘　　要：为科学衡量中国进口原油海运网络中节点功能失效对网络连通可靠性的影响,在识别网络中重要节点的基础上,针对节点面临的随机性攻击和选择性攻击,分别采用蒙特卡洛模拟和不交化最小路集算法建立中国进口原油海运网络的连通可靠性评估模型。评价结果表明:当节点面临随机性攻击时,中国进口原油海运网络相对可靠;而在面对选择性攻击时,网络连通可靠性大幅下降,原油进口安全受到较大威胁。此外,在中国进口原油海运网络的3个原油海运通道中,拉美通道的连通可靠性相对最好,中东通道的连通可靠性相对最差。In order to measure the effects of the function failure of nodes on the connectivity reliability of the maritime transportation network for importing crude oil to China,the important nodes in the network is identified and a connectivity reliability evaluation model is builded with Monte Carlo Simulation and the disjoint minimal path set algorithm. The evaluation results indicate that to random attack,the maritime transportation network is relatively reliable,but the targeted attack may cause a substantial decline in the network connectivity reliability,threatening the security of crude oil imports. The analysis also reveal that,comparatively,among the three crude oil importing shipping channels,the connectivity reliability of Latin channel is the best,the Middle East channel is the worst.

关 键 词：原油海运网络 连通可靠性 节点失效 随机性攻击 选择性攻击 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]