不确定环境下的班轮运输补油策略与航速优化  

Liner Shipping Refueling Strategy and Speed Optimization Under Uncertain Environment

作　　者：张素庸 汪传旭[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海海事大学经济管理学院,上海201306

出　　处：《中国航海》2017年第3期129-134,共6页Navigation of China

基　　金：上海市科研创新重点项目(14ZS122)

摘　　要：考虑燃油价格的不确定性及航运碳排放因素,以船舶加油港口的选择、补油量和各航段航速为决策变量,建立基于模糊规划的班轮运输船舶燃油补给策略与航速优化模型。从理论上分析论证该模型存在最优解,并运用实例验证模型的有效性。进一步分析燃油价格模糊区间大小、碳税税率对航运成本、船舶补油策略和航速决策的影响。结果表明:班轮企业只有合理设置燃油价格模糊程度和碳税税率,才能保证企业的经济效益和社会效益。With the fuel price uncertainty and carbon emissions taken into account,the model for optimizing the liner shipping bunkering strategy and the speed is developed,which determines the bunkering ports,the bunkering amount and the speed of every leg of a voyage. Theoretical analysis proves the existence of the optimal solution to this model. A real example is given to illustrate the validity of the proposed model. The effects of the uncertain degree of oil prices and the carbon tax rate on refueling strategy and sailing speed are analyzed. The results show that the liner shipping enterprises should set up the fuzzy degree of fuel price and the carbon tax rate reasonably,in order to ensure the economic and social benefits of enterprises.

关 键 词：交通运输经济学 模糊规划 碳排放 补油策略 航速优化 

分 类 号：U676.3[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]