故障概率与影响因素因果关系的推理方法研究  

Research on causality reasoning method of failure probability and influencing factors

作　　者：陈烜[1] 沈玉志[1] 崔铁军[2] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁工程技术大学工商管理学院,辽宁阜新123000 [2]辽宁工程技术大学安全科学与工程学院,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《计算机应用研究》2017年第12期3651-3655,共5页Application Research of Computers

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51704141,61350003,51050003)

摘　　要：为了研究元件故障发生概率与影响故障因素之间的因果关系,基于因素空间理论的基本思想,在空间故障树框架内提出了影响因素和目标因素因果逻辑关系的两种推理方法,即状态吸收法和状态复现法。前者尽量使最终推理结果包含所有状态信息,是广度优先方法;后者尽量使出现频率大的状态信息起主导作用,是深度优先方法。解释了上述两种方法出现的必然性。应用上述方法分析了故障概率与使用时间和使用温度之间的因果逻辑关系,并与已有分析结果进行比较,表明所得因果关系基本覆盖了故障概率分布特征,验证了方法的正确性,给出了方法的适应性特点及缺点。In order to study the causal relationship between the component failure probability and factors influencing the failure,this paper put forward the causal logic relations of the two kinds of reasoning methods for the affecting factors and objective factors,in space fault tree,based on the theory of factors space. Two methods are respectively state absorption method and state repeat method. The former try to make the final reasoning result contains all state information,is breadth-first method.The latter as far as possible to make the frequency of status information plays a leading role,is depth priority method. It explained the inevitability of the above two methods. It used the above method to analyze the causal relationship between failure probability and working time and temperature,and comparing with existing results. It shows that the causal relationship covers basic failure probability distribution characteristics,and verifies the validity of the method.

关 键 词：安全系统工程 空间故障树 因素空间 因果关系推理 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]