我国国债发行规模影响因素的数学统计分析  

The Mathematical Statistical Analysis of the Influencing Factors of China's National Debt Issuance

作　　者：李昕阳 

机构地区：[1]北京化工大学理学院,北京100029

出　　处：《集宁师范学院学报》2017年第6期61-65,共5页Journal of Jining Normal University

摘　　要：国债,即国家公债,是国家按债券的一般原则,通过向外界筹集资金所形成的债权债务关系。国债是以国家信用为基础的,所以国债具有最高的信用度,被认为是最安全的投资方式。它对调整社会资金结构、聚集社会闲散资金、推动生产发展有着重要的作用。适度的发行国债可以弥补财政赤字、有效控制货币供应量、影响市场利率、调节供需关系的平衡、抑制通货膨胀。但是,由于国债性质的特殊性,利用这种方式集资必须要有一定的限度。笔者通过查阅我国历年国债发行相关资料,分析后发现,目前我国国债发行正处于急速增长阶段,国债的发行量占财政总收入的比重也越来越大,甚至已经超过了15%的警戒线。因此,客观分析了我国目前国债发行规模及其影响因素非常必要。该文将采用数学统计方法,分析一系列影响国债发行规模的因素,研究我国国债现状并预测其未来发展趋势。Government bonds, or national governmental bonds reflect the creditor-debtor relationship formed by raising fundsfrom the outside world. The national debt is based on the national credit, so the national debt has the highest rating edit and isconsidered the safest investment. It plays an important role in adjusting the social capital structure, gathering idle funds andpromoting the development of production. The issuance of appropriate government bonds can make up for the deficit,effectively control the supply of money, influence the market interest rate, adjust the balance between supply and demand,and restrain the inflation. However, due to the particularity of national debt, there must be some limits to the use of thismethod. By investigating and analyzing every year’s relevant data of national debt issuance, the author finds that the bondsissued in China is in such a stage of rapid growth that the national debt circulation has accounted for the bigger and biggerproportion of fiscal revenue-even more than 15%-the warning line. Therefore, it is necessary to objectively analyze thecurrent issuance scale and its influencing factors. In this paper, mathematical statistical methods will be used to analyze thefactors that affect the size of national debt issuance, study the present situation of China’s national debt and predict its futuredevelopment.

关 键 词：国债规模 SPSS软件 GRANGER因果关系 EVIEWS软件 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学]