Future changes in coverage of 1.5℃ and 2℃warming thresholds  被引量:10

Future changes in coverage of 1.5℃ and 2℃ warming thresholds

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作  者:di tian wenjie dong han zhang yan guo shili yang tanlong dai 

机构地区:[1]State Key Laboratory of Stllite Ocean Environment Dynamics,Second Instiute of Oceanography,Hangzhou 310012,China [2]School of Atmospheric Sciences,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China [3]Zhuhai Joint Innovative Center for Climate-Environment-Ecosystem,Future Earth Research Institute,Beijing Normal University,Zhuhai 519087,China [4]State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science,College of Ocean and Earth Sciences,Xiamen University,Xiamen 361005,China [5]State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China

出  处:《Science Bulletin》2017年第21期1455-1463,共9页科学通报(英文版)

基  金:supported by the National Key Research&Development Plan of China(No.2016YFA0602703 and No.2016YFC1401603);the special fund forthe Second Institute of Oceanography(No.JG1620);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41705048,No.41605036 and No.41621064);Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China(No.LR16D060001);Sino-German cooperation in ocean and polar research;the national-level major cultivation project of Guangdong Province(No.2014GKXM058)

摘  要:The areas covered by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming thresholds under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were analyzed based on 22 CMIP5 models. More than 90% of the model runs are in agreement that by the end of the 21 st century, near-surface air temperature changes over ~5%(~2%), ~40%(~18%), and ~92%(~86%)of the globe will cross the 1.5 ℃(2.0 ℃) threshold under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Under RCP8.5, nearly the whole of North America, Europe + Russia, Africa, and Asia–Russia will cross the 1.5 ℃(2.0 ℃) threshold in ~2050(~2060), while the coverage rates over South America and Oceania are ~80%(~75%) and ~50%(~30%), respectively. The threshold-onset time(TOT) for 2 ℃ warming is earliest over Europe + Russia and North America, followed by Africa, Asia–Russia, South America, and finally Oceania under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The TOT for 1.5 ℃ is ~10–30 years ahead of that for 2.0 ℃.The areas covered by 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ warming thresholds under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 were ana- lyzed based on 22 CMIP5 models. More than 90% of the model runs are in agreement that by the end of the 21st century, near-surface air temperature changes over -5% (-2%), -40% (-18%), and -92% (-86%) of the globe will cross the 1.5 ℃ (2.0 ℃) threshold under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, respectively. Under RCP8.5, nearly the whole of North America, Europe + Russia, Africa, and Asia-Russia will cross the 1.5 ℃ (2.0 ℃) threshold in -2050 (-2060), while the coverage rates over South America and Oceania are -80% (-75%) and -50% (-30-), respectively. The threshold-onset time (TOT) for 2 ℃ warming is earliest over Europe + Russia and North America, followed by Africa, Asia-Russia, South America, and finally Oceania under the RCP4.5 and RCPS.5 scenarios. The TOT for 1.5 ℃ is -10-30 years ahead of that for 2.0 ℃.

关 键 词:2℃ threshold 1.5℃ threshold CMIP5 Coverage rate 

分 类 号:P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]

 

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