我国文化产品出口贸易特征及增长因素实证研究——基于多国CMS模型的因素分解  

An Empirical Study on Characteristics and Influencing Factor of the Growth of China's Cultural Products Export: Based on Revised Multi-market CMS Model

作　　者：刘钧霆 佟继英[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学新华国际商学院 [2]教育部人文社科重点研究基地辽宁大学转型国家经济政治研究中心 [3]唐山学院经济管理系 [4]辽宁大学

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2017年第11期32-48,共17页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(14JJD790021);河北省科技局指令计划(174576242D);2017年河北省社科联民生调研课题(201701515)

摘　　要：文章以UNESCO2009年文化统计框架中6类97个HS六位编码文化产品为基础,选取WITS数据库2002～2015中国文化产品出口数据,分析其出口特征。运用多国CMS模型对2002～2007、2008～2009、2010～2013、2014～2015四个阶段我国文化产品贸易增长因素进行分解。结果显示,世界文化市场需求变化对我国文化产品出口的影响较为显著,我国文化产品整体竞争力的增强是出口增长的主要原因之一,而产品结构和市场竞争效应对出口增长的拉动作用较弱。我国应采取有效措施,积极培育文化贸易的竞争优势,促进文化产品出口的健康与可持续增长。This paper analyzes the characteristics of China＇s cultural products export by using trade data from the year of 1992 to 2015 from WITS Database, based on the HS classification at a 6-digit level according to the 2009 UNESCO framework for cultural statistics. Based on the revised multi -markets CMS model, the authors decompose the influencing factors of the growth of China＇s cultural goods during the period 2002-2007, 2008-2009, 2010-2013 and 2014-2015 separately. The results show that the effect of market demand and overall competitiveness of China＇ s cultural products play a decisive role in the growth of China＇ s cultural products exports, while the product structural effects and market competitiveness effects are not significant factors. Therefore, China should take effective measures to foster the competitive advantage of culture products to promote the healthy and sustainable growth of culture trade.

关 键 词：文化产品 出口 CMS模型 增长因素 

分 类 号：F752.652[经济管理—国际贸易]