东道国领导人任期与中国在“一带一路”沿线的直接投资  

Term Limits of Host Country Leaders and China's OFDI in the Belt and Road Initiative Area

作　　者：许陈生[1,2] 陈荣 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院 [2]21世纪海上丝绸之路协同创新中心

出　　处：《国际经贸探索》2017年第11期93-112,共20页International Economics and Trade Research

基　　金：2016年广东省自然科学基金项目"高层政治外交对中国对外直接投资境外安全的影响研究"(2016A030313687);2015年国家社科基金重大项目"‘一带一路’战略与中国参与全球经济治理问题研究"(15ZDA018)

摘　　要：领导人在国家经济发展中的作用越来越被重视,基于此,文章运用2003~2014年的面板数据,实证考察了东道国领导人任期对中国在"一带一路"沿线直接投资的影响作用。研究发现,"一带一路"沿线东道国领导人任期与中国对外直接投资存在显著的二次倒U型关系。但进一步的研究则发现,东道国领导人任期对中国对外直接投资的影响会因东道国政治体制和领导人对华态度的不同而存在明显差异,只有威权型东道国领导人任期才存在显著倒U型影响,而民主型东道国或对华态度友好的领导人任期均只存在显著的一次线性积极影响,排华领导人任期则只存在显著的一次线性消极影响。因此,中国企业开展海外直接投资必须重视东道国领导人的任期变化,并根据东道国政治体制和领导人对华态度,有针对性地采取相应策略。National leaders play crucial roles in shaping the growth of nations. Based on the panel data of China＇s OFDI location during 2003-2014, this paper examines the influence of term limits of host country leaders on China＇s OFDI in the Belt and Road Initiative area. Overall, we find robust evidence that it exhibits a significant inverted U relationship between them. But further study shows that the influence of term limits of host country leaders on China＇s OFDI varies sharply with different political systems and host country leaders＇ attitude toward China. The results suggest that the inverted U relationship only exists in autocratic systems. However, under democratic systems, it presents significant positive linear relationship. And the same result is found for pro-China leaders. For anti -China leaders, it shows a negative linear relationship. Therefore, Chinese enterprises must attach great importance to the change of term limits of host country leaders when developing foreign investment; besides, they should also adopt a set of strategies and policies based on the political system of host countries and leaders＇ attitude toward China.

关 键 词：东道国领导人 任期 “一带一路” 中国对外直接投资 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]