宁夏一次降水过程人工影响天气模式系统云和降水预报产品检验分析  

Evaluation analysis on a precipitation process of weather modification model system precipitation product in Ningxia

作　　者：马思敏 翟涛[1,2,3] 常倬林 穆建华[1,2,3] 田磊 曹宁[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局旱区特色农业气象灾害监测预警与风险管理重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [2]宁夏气象防灾减灾重点实验室,宁夏银川750002 [3]宁夏气象科学研究所,宁夏银川750002

出　　处：《宁夏工程技术》2017年第3期198-202,共5页Ningxia Engineering Technology

基　　金：宁夏气象局科学技术研究项目(GRAPS-CAMS和MM5-CAMS模式产品的本地化应用)

摘　　要：应用中国气象局人工影响天气中心研发的GRAPES-CAMS模式对宁夏2016年8月24—25日降水过程预报产品,如云系的发展演变特征、云系的宏观特征、云垂直结构和云性质、降水场及其演变进行检验分析。检验结果表明,GRAPES-CAMS模式预报宁夏此次混合云系的发展演变趋势、移向与实况基本一致,但预报混合云系的移动速度比实况慢,导致云带整体位置偏西;预报云的云顶高度偏低,云顶温度偏高;预报降水演变与实况相当,但对于北部降水预报范围和量级都偏大,相反对于南部降水预报范围偏小,24 h的降水强度比实况小一个等级。该模式能够较好地模拟出宁夏混合云系的位置、范围及发展演变特征,可作为宁夏人工增雨条件决策的重要依据,对于科学开展人工影响天气作业指挥有一定指导意义。Application of the GRAPES-CAMS model of Weather Modification Center of China, the Meteorological Administration in Ningxia on August 24-25, 2016 precipitation forecast product is investigated. The evolution of cloud, the vertical structure and macroscopic characteristics, the cloud properties, precipitation field and its evolution are all analyzed. The results show that the evolution tendency and the development of the hybrid cloud structures in Ningxia form GRAPES-CAMS model forecast is consistent with the reality. But the movement speed of mixed clouds predicted slower than the reality, leading to overall position by west cloud band; And the cloud top height predicts lower with higher cloud top temperature compared with the reality. The evolution of precipitation is similar to the fact, but the range and magnitude of precipitation forecast in the north are relatively large. On the contrary, the precipitation forecast range is less in the south,and the precipitation intensity of 24 h is smaller a level than the live.

关 键 词：GRAPES-CAMS模式 检验 预报 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]