近50年江苏省极端降水时空变化及其对单季稻产量的影响  

Spatio-temporal variation of extreme precipitation during recent 50 years in Jiangsu Province and its influence on single-crop rice yield

作　　者：徐阳[1] 孙莉娟 黄进[3] 伍琼[1] 朱雅丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽省农村综合经济信息中心/安徽省农业生态大数据工程实验室,安徽合肥230031 [2]安徽省人工影响天气办公室,安徽合肥230001 [3]南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《广东农业科学》2017年第8期139-144,共6页Guangdong Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506018);江苏省高校自然科学研究面上项目(16KJB170008);安徽省科技攻关项目(1501031078)

摘　　要：利用江苏省52个气象站1961—2012年逐月降水量资料及单季稻产量逐年数据,计算5~10月各生育期的极端降水指数,研究区降水变化与产量的潜在关系。各站点降水指数的趋势检验结果表明,大部分站点6、7、8月的极端降水事件呈现增强的趋势,其中8月1日最大降水量的增加趋势尤为显著;而大部分站点5、9、10月极端降水事件呈现减弱的趋势,其中9月总降雨日数的减少趋势尤为显著。单季稻产量与各月降水指数的相关分析表明,在7、8、9、10月中,大多数站点的产量与降水指数呈负相关。诸多指数中,7月最大连续7 d降水量和8月总降雨日数对产量的负效应尤为显著,而苏南地区的单季稻种植对这两个指标的变化更为敏感。Based on the data of daily precipitation and single-crop rice yield at 52 meteorological stations in Jiangsu during 1961–2012,the extreme precipitation indices(EPI) during growing periods from May to October were calculated,and the possible relationship between precipitation variability and rice yield was explored.The trend test for EPI in different stations indicated that the extreme precipitation during June,July,and August in most of stations had enhancing tendency,and the increasing trends of 1-day maximum precipitation amount in August was more obvious;however,the extreme precipitation during May,September,and October in most of stations had weakening tendency,and the decreasing trends of total rainy days in September was more obvious.The correlation analysis between the single-crop rice yield and EPI in different months indicated that there were negative correlations between yield and precipitation indices of July,August,September,and October.Among the different indices,the negative impacts of continued 7-day maximum precipitation amount in August and total rainy days in September were more obvious,and the single-crop rice in south Jiangsu was more sensitive to the variability of these two precipitation indicators.

关 键 词：江苏 极端降水指数 单季稻 产量 

分 类 号：S511.41[农业科学—作物学] P426.615[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]