房价上涨影响居民消费的门槛效应:倒U假说及实证  

The Threshold Effect of Housing Price Rise on Residents' Consumption:Inverted U Hypothesis and Empirical Test

作　　者：李春风[1] 刘建江[2] 齐祥芹 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学经济管理学院,江苏南京210044 [2]长沙理工大学经济与管理学院,湖南长沙410015

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2017年第12期162-169,共8页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(15CJL017);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(14YJC790060);国家自然科学基金项目(71602091);南京信息工程大学人才启动基金项目(S8113086001);长沙理工大学开放课题(16CASL07)

摘　　要：文章结合住房的双重属性及其对应的双重效应图形走势,理论分析发现房价对我国居民消费的影响存在明显的门槛效应,若房价上涨较为平稳,对消费的影响为财富效应,反之上涨过快,财富效应转为挤出效应,抑制消费增长。并结合实证分析,将住房双重属性纳入消费者最优选择模型中,构建动态面板门槛模型,得出与理论分析一致结论。结果显示:房价上涨幅度低于门槛值9.62%时,总体表现为财富效应,且效应大小随房价上涨呈倒U形曲线特征;若房价涨幅高于门槛值,呈现出挤出效应,且随房价进一步攀升更加明显。结合研究结论与现实情形,不难发现,要发挥房地产对消费的正向促进作用,应将房价控制在合理水平上。Based on the dual attributes of housing and the corresponding dual effect graphics trend, this paper, from the theoretical analy-sis, finds that the impact of housing prices on China's residents consumption has a significant threshold effect. If housing price rises rela-tively stable, its impact on consumption is wealth effect, otherwise it rises too fast, wealth effect becomes crowding out effect and inhibitsconsumption growth. Furthermore, the paper, combined with an empirical analysis, constructs the dynamic panel threshold model by incor-porating the dual attributes of housing into the optimal choice model of consumers, and draws the conclusions which are consistent withthe theoretical analysis. The results show that: If the housing price rise is below the threshold value of 9.62%, the impact of housing pricerise on consumption is dominated by the wealth effect, and the effect value is inverted U-shape curve characteristics with the housingprice rise; If the housing price rise is higher than the threshold value, the overall effect appears crowding out effect, and this effect will bemore obvious along with the housing price continues to rise. Combining the research conclusions with the actual situation, it is not difficult tofind that the housing price should be controlled at a reasonable level in order to play the positive role of real estate in promoting consumption.

关 键 词：房价上涨 门槛效应 倒U曲线特征 门槛模型的工具变量估计 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F063.2