DYMEX模型在棉铃虫种群动态中的应用  

Simulation modelling of the population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera(Hübner)(Lepidoptera:Noctuidae)using DYMEX

作　　者：顾世民[1,2] Myron P.Zalucki 张豹 刘永建 吕昭智 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011 [2]中国科学院大学,北京100049 [3]澳大利亚昆士兰大学生物科学学院 [4]新疆石河子147团农业科植保站,石河子832045 [5]新疆石河子121团农机推广站,石河子832066

出　　处：《植物保护》2017年第6期17-28,共12页Plant Protection

基　　金：国家国际科技合作专项(2011DFA33170);兵团科技援疆计划(2014AB009)

摘　　要：模型模拟是昆虫种群动态研究的重要内容,DYMEX模型是一种基于同生群概念的机理性模型,能够较真实、全面地模拟多因素影响下的种群动态,便于推广应用。棉铃虫Helicoverpa armigera自然种群动态受到诸多生态因子的影响,如气候、天敌和田间管理等,过程复杂。本文利用DYMEX 3.0软件建立了棉铃虫种群动态模型,对实验室棉铃虫种群关键生命表参数随温度变化和控制条件下杀虫剂对棉铃虫和天敌的毒杀作用分别进行了模拟;对新疆石河子121团和147团2009-2014年棉铃虫自然种群动态进行了模拟,并比较和分析了模拟结果。结果表明:(1)建立的棉铃虫DYMEX模型,在模拟实验室棉铃虫种群各阶段发育历期、存活率、成虫繁殖和寿命,以及杀虫剂对棉铃虫卵、1~3龄幼虫和天敌的毒杀影响方面,拟合优度R^2普遍高于0.6(P<0.05);(2)模拟田间条件下棉铃虫种群的相对发生量和发生期与实际自然种群具有较好的一致性。因此,建立的DYMEX模型,较可靠地模拟、反映了室内控制条件和复杂生境下棉铃虫种群特征和动态,为棉铃虫室内多因素试验结果分析、因素效能分析和复杂条件下发生期和相对发生量的预测预报等方面提供有效帮助,为田间害虫的综合管理、防治提供参考。Simulation modelling can contribute to our understanding of insect population dynamics and pest management.DYMEX model was a kind of mechanism model based on the concept of cohorts,which allowed the model to be more realistic in simulating population dynamics affected by multi-factors and to be popularized.The population dynamics of Helicoverpa armigera is influenced by many factors such as climate,natural enemies and agricultural practices,making modeling and simulation of population abundance and phenology difficult.In this study,DYMEX version 3.0 software was used to build a model of H.armigera.(1)Simulations were consistent with experimental results(the R2 were above 0.6 and the P-value were less than0.05)for cotton bollworm developmental time,survivorship of immature stages and progeny production and longevity of female as influenced by different temperatures and pesticide effects.(2)Simulation of population relative abundance and phenology were consistent with field monitoring data.The DYMEX model of H.armigera can be used to study population dynamics under various scenarios and help us analyze lab experimental results,understand the contribution of various factors to population changes and make forecasts of population dynamics and so better serve pest management.

关 键 词：棉铃虫 种群动态 DYMEX模型 预测预报 害虫综合管理 

分 类 号：S435.62[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治] S431.9[农业科学—植物保护]