贝叶斯推理的认知困境及其消解  

The Cognitive Dilemma of Bayesian Reasoning and Its Solution

作　　者：李章吕[1] 何向东[1] LI Zhang - Iv;HE Xiang - dong(Institute of Logic and Intelligence, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学逻辑与智能研究中心,重庆400715

出　　处：《科学技术哲学研究》2017年第6期13-18,共6页Studies in Philosophy of Science and Technology

基　　金：重庆市人文社会科学重点研究基地重点项目(13SKB019);国家社科基金重大项目(14ZDB016);国家社科基金后期资助项目(15FZX032);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(SWU1709602)

摘　　要：贝叶斯推理是以贝叶斯定理为基础的一种归纳推理形式,它可以成功避免经典统计推理中的主观因素问题和先验回避问题,并有效消解科学确证、科学接受和归纳逻辑中的诸多悖论和难题,因而在现代归纳逻辑发展史上占据着重要地位,并形成了一种关于归纳推理研究的"贝叶斯主义纲领"。但贝叶斯推理会导致许多与直观概率判断相悖的结论,从而形成诸多的认知困境。这就对贝叶斯推理的有效性形成了挑战。借助认知科学的知识可知:认知困境的产生并不是因为贝叶斯推理本身有问题,而是因为人们在进行直观判断时倾向于采用启发式判断策略。通过采用"使用自然频率来表征概率信息"和"使用无代表性内容的问题"等方式可以有效消解此类认知困境。Bayesian reasoning is one of the inductive reasoning models based on Bayes＇ theorem. It has eliminated the problems caused by ignore-to-prior and subjective issues in classical statistic inference,and solved the dilemmas in scientific confirmation,scientific acceptance and inductive logic. It has played an important role in the history of modern inductive logic since last century,and formed an Bayesian program about the research of inductive reasoning. However,lots of cognitive dilemmas occur in the intuitive probability judgment,which challenges the validity of Bayesian reasoning violently. Based on the knowledge of cognitive psychology,there is an efficient defense： cognitive dilemmas are not resulted from Bayesian reasoning itself,but the judgment strategies adopted in the process of intuitive judgment,they can be resolved effectively by ＂changing the probability information into frequency format＂and ＂using the non-representative Bayesian problem＂,etc.

关 键 词：贝叶斯推理 贝叶斯问题 认知悖论 认知心理学 启发式策略 

分 类 号：N02[自然科学总论—科学技术哲学]