房价与宏观经济关系的实证检验  

Empirical Examination on Relationship Between Housing Prices and Macro-economy

作　　者：张红[1] 李林峻 李维娜 

机构地区：[1]清华大学土木水利学院城镇化与产业发展研究中心/恒隆房地产研究中心,北京100084 [2]香港恒生管理学院会计系,香港999077

出　　处：《统计与决策》2017年第22期155-158,共4页Statistics & Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373143);清华大学自主科研计划(2015THZ01)

摘　　要：文章基于脉冲响应分析,分别从一二三线城市的角度探讨房价与宏观经济的关系。结果表明,利率对房价有明显的负向影响,自一二三线城市逐步减小;通货膨胀对房价的影响初期为正,后转为负向,一线城市中负向影响最为明显;宏观经济增长对房价的影响为正向,自一二三线城市依次减小。This paper is based on impulse response analysis method to conduct an empirical study on the relations between housing prices and the macro-economy from the perspective of China＇ s first-, second- and third-tier cities. The study results show that the interest rate has significant negative effect on housing prices, and the effect gradually decreases from the first-tier cities to the third-tier cities; the effect of inflation on housing prices is positive in the initial period and then becomes negative, and the negative effect in the first-tier cities is the most significant; the influence of the macroeconomic growth rate on housing prices is generally positive in all the cities, and the effect degree decreases successively from the first-tier cities to the third-tier cities.

关 键 词：房价 宏观经济 一二三线城市 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]