2008—2014年新疆夏季逐时雨强时空特征及其影响因素  

Spatio-temporal Variation of Hourly Rainfall Intensity and Its Affecting Factors in Xinjiang in Summer during the Period from 2008 to 2014

作　　者：陈荣[1] 张明军[1] 王圣杰[1] 车彦军[1] 王杰[1] 杜铭霞 杨森[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《干旱区研究》2017年第6期1240-1249,共10页Arid Zone Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41161012);国家重大科学研究计划项目(2013CBA01801);西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划项目(NWNU-LKQN-15-8);中国沙漠气象科学研究基金(Sqj2016001)共同资助

摘　　要：基于中国自动气象站与CMORPH降水产品融合的逐时降水0.1°×0.1°网格数据集以及各概率下5 min雨强资料,评估了该套格点数据集在新疆的可信度,利用概率分布、变差系数与相关分析等方法,分析了新疆地区夏季逐时雨强的时空分布特征,并结合NCEP/NCAR 2008—2014年再分析格点资料对新疆逐时雨强变化的影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:(1)插值后的格点雨强空间分布与概率雨强空间分布基本一致,格点雨强资料具有较好的可信度。(2)全区各类逐时雨强发生频次及极值年际波动显著,降水有极端化趋势;全区逐时雨强发生频次空间分布不均衡,逐时雨强发生频次北疆大于南疆,西部大于东部;而极值分布呈现东西分布的差异,高值区主要集中在西部地区。(3)北疆白天的逐时雨强大于夜间的,南疆则相反;雨强日变化变差系数也是北疆较小,南疆较大。(4)逐时雨强的空间分布与降水量的大致相似,其分布差异的根本原因不在于水汽的多少,而在于促成降水的动力条件及其他因素的差异。Based on the 0. 1° gridded hourly precipitation dataset merged from the automatic weather stations in China and the Climate Precipitation Center Morphing（CMORPH） precipitation product,and the 5-minute rainfall intensity under different probable conditions,the credibility of gridded datasets of precipitation in Xinjiang was evaluated,the spatiotemporal distribution of hourly rainfall intensity in Xinjiang was analyzed using the probability distribution,variation coefficient and correlation analysis,and the factors affecting the distribution of hourly rainfall intensity in Xinjiang were analyzed using the NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis grid data. The results are as follows：（1） The spatial distribution of the gridded rainfall intensity was consistent with the rainfall intensity of probability,and the gridded rainfall data were highly reliable;（2） In the whole region,the frequency of various types of hourly rainfall intensity and the interannual variations of extreme value were significant,and there was an extreme precipitation trend; the spatial distribution of frequency of hourly rainfall intensity was different,and the frequency of hourly rainfall intensity was much higher in north Xinjiang than in south Xinjiang and much higher in the western part than in the eastern part of Xinjiang. The distribution of extreme value in the east was different from that in the west,and the areas with high value of hourly rainfall intensity was mostly distributed in the west;（3） In north Xinjiang,the diurnal hourly rainfall intensity was higher than the nocturnal one,but it was opposite in south Xinjiang;the daily variation coefficient of rainfall intensity was lower in north Xinjiang than that in south Xinjiang;（4） The spatial distribution of average hourly rainfall intensity was similar to that of precipitation,the fundamental reason for the difference of precipitation was not the water vapor amount,and it is affected by the difference of dynamic conditions and other factors.

关 键 词：逐时雨强 变差系数 概率雨强 时空分布 新疆 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]