河北省耕地资源安全评价及预测  

Safety Evaluation and Prediction of Cultivated Land Resources in Hebei Province

作　　者：封乾 牛志君 袁大鹏 石垚 王树涛 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学资源与环境科学学院,河北保定071000 [2]河北农业大学国土资源学院,河北保定071000

出　　处：《土壤通报》2017年第5期1061-1068,共8页Chinese Journal of Soil Science

基　　金：国土资源部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201311060)资助

摘　　要：通过对河北省2005~2015年的耕地资源安全状况进行了评价,并且对未来11年的耕地资源的安全情况进行了预测分析,以此作为区域耕地资源可持续利用的依据。本文基从数量、质量、生态安全三个方面构建了耕地资源安全评价指标体系,通过熵权法计算出评价因子的权重以及运用TOPSIS模型计算耕地资源安全值,采用无偏灰色预测模型对耕地资源的安全情况进行了预测,并利用障碍度模型计算了各指标的障碍度,从而确定出主要障碍因子。结果表明:(1)2005~2015年河北省耕地资源综合安全值呈缓慢上升趋势,并且从不安全等级上升到临界安全等级;(2)预测结果表明,2016~2026年河北省耕地资源安全值虽然缓慢上升,但一直处在临界安全等级;(3)通过运用障碍度模型计算出未来11年各项指标的障碍度,得出影响河北省耕地资源安全的主要因素主要集中在农业生产以及生态环境等方面。总体来看,2005~2015年河北省的耕地资源安全状况较差,未来的耕地资源安全状况的改善还需要政府通过制定有利于农业发展的政策措施,完善农业设施的建设和土地的利用管理等。Thesecurity situation of cultivated land resources in Hebei Province was analyzedduring 2005-2015 and then was predictedin next 11 years in order to provide basis for sustainable utilization of regional cultivated land resources. This paper constructed the evaluation index system from the quantity, quality, ecological security aspects, calculated the weight of evaluation index by entropy method and the security value of cultivated land resource by TOPSIS model, predicted the future security of cultivated land resources with the unbiased grey forecasting model, and determined the obstacle factorsby the model of obstacle degree. The results showed that： （1）The security value of cultivated land resources increased slowly in Hebei Province from 2005 to 2015and rose to critical security level from unsafe level;（2）The security value of cultivated land resources in Hebei Province slowly increased, but it still was in critical level of security; （3）The main influence factors of cultivated land resource security in Hebei Province were mainly concentrated in the agricultural production and ecological environment. Overall, the security situation of cultivated land resources in Hebei Province was substandard from 2005 to 2015. The government should make policies and measures advantageous to the agricultural developmentand further strengthen the agricultural infrastructure construction and land use management.

关 键 词：耕地资源安全 TOPSIS模型 无偏灰色预测模型 障碍度模型 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]