欧亚关税同盟对中哈出口贸易的影响--基于HS 6位编码商品的面板数据检验  

Grey Trade and Tariff's Impact on China's Export to Kazakhstan:An Empirical Study Based on the Six-Digit HS Classification

作　　者：熊灵[1] 覃操[1] 谭秀杰 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学中国边界与海洋研究院、国家主权与海洋权益协同创新中心,430072

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2017年第10期85-96,共12页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：武汉大学“中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金”(2017N005)

摘　　要：2010年欧亚关税同盟成立,哈萨克斯坦对外关税大幅提升,根据贸易转移理论,哈萨克斯坦将减少对关税同盟外各国的进口。至于该事件是否阻碍了中哈出口贸易,目前却无定论。为了研究该问题,本文基于HS 6位编码商品,使用系统GMM方法定量分析了2007-2014年间中国对哈萨克斯坦出口贸易的面板数据。实证结果表明,虽然哈萨克斯坦关税大幅上升,但由于灰色清关现象的广泛存在,中国出口几乎没有因此而减少。相比之下,哈萨克斯坦打击灰色清关之举则会对中哈出口贸易造成较大冲击,不过该举措同时也有助于规范双边贸易、营造良好的贸易环境。Eurasian Economic Union（EACU） was established in 2010, which sharply increased Kazakhstan＇s external tariff. Kazakhstan would thus reduce import from countries outside EACU according to the trade diversion theory, but no final conclusion has yet been reached on whether China＇s export to Kazakhstan was impaired by the surging tariff. In order to answer the question, this paper, based on 6-digit HS classification, quantitatively analyzes China＇s export to Kazakhstan from 2007 to 2014 by applying system GMM method. The empirical results indicate that, despite the fact that EACU had raised Kazakhstan＇ s tariff level greatly, China＇ s export was barely reduced due to the prevalence of grey customs clearance. Kazakhstan＇ s official action of striking grey trade, by contrast, had great negative impact on China＇s export in the short term. Nevertheless, this measure would also help to regulate bilateral trade, and construct a favorable trade environment between both countries.

关 键 词：中哈贸易 灰色清关 关税水平 贸易转移 欧亚关税同盟 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]