对外直接投资、主权信用与投资风险——基于国别样本的动态面板分析  

Outward Foreign Direct Investment, Sovereign Credit and Risk Control

作　　者：王旭[1] 方虹[1] 彭博[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2017年第10期153-162,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然基金"全球气候变化背景下污染密集型产业国际转移的利益均衡:模型构建与实证研究"(71273022);北京市社会科学基金重大项目"气候变化与国际贸易协同发展研究"(15ZDA49);教育部专项基金项目"基于CDIO的校企多维合作创新型物流工程人才培养模式研究"(15JDC012);中国工程院咨询项目"我国校企合作协同创新战略研究"(2017-RC-05)

摘　　要：本文基于2003—2015年中国对135个国家(地区)的投资数据,采用动态面板数据模型分析东道国主权信用对中国对外直接投资的影响。研究结果表明:从全球范围看,中国企业对外直接投资偏向主权信用较低、投资风险较大的国家;单独对"一带一路"沿线国家、资源丰裕国家和发达国家的分析表明,该类国家的主权信用对中国对外直接投资呈U型影响:当东道国主权信用低于某一水平时,中国对外直接投资偏向主权信用较低的国家;当东道国主权信用超出某一水平时,中国对外直接投资则偏向主权信用较高的国家。中国对外直接投资趋向东道国主权信用水平的两个极端——战略资产丰富的高主权信用国和自然资源丰裕的低主权信用国。Along with the development of China＇s＂go global＂strategy, the scale of outward foreign direct investment grows rapidly. Host country＇s low sovereign credit rating will deteriorate the local investment environment and increase the investment risk. ODI will be effected by the host countries＇ economic development level, market scale, natural resources endowment and strategic assets, which is the academic consensus. In this paper, we use the data of China＇s outward direct invest to 135 countries to analysis the impact of host country＇s sovereign credit risk on China＇s ODI. The results show that Chinese multinational companies prefer to invest in high sovereign credit risk countries. When analyzing＂BR＂ countries, we find that China＇s ODI nonlinearly responses to host countries＇ sovereign credit—a U-shaped impact. Within a certain range, China＇s ODI has more preference for countries with lower sovereign credit, while China＇s ODI is inclined to countries with high sovereign credit when sovereign credit is over a certain range.

关 键 词：对外直接投资 主权信用 投资风险 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F832.48[经济管理—金融学]