劳动成本对中国木材加工业国际竞争力的动态影响研究  

Study on the Dynamic Impact of Labor Cost on the International Competitiveness of Chinese Timber Processing Industry

作　　者：卞莉岚 林艺红 林伟明[1] 

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学金山学院,福州350002 [2]福建农林大学管理学院,福州350002

出　　处：《林业经济问题》2017年第6期32-39,共8页Issues of Forestry Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71703024)

摘　　要：基于从业人员实际月报酬、单位劳动成本角度,应用状态空间模型和Kalman滤波算法,测度劳动成本对中国木材加工业国际竞争力的动态影响,结果表明:1992~2011年间,实际月报酬对木材加工业国际竞争力呈"先降后升再降"的正向影响特征;单位劳动成本对木材加工业国际竞争力呈"先降后升"的负向影响特征。因此,中国木材加工业应构建以单位劳动成本为核心的国际竞争战略,建立以"高劳动报酬、高生产率"为特征的劳动成本新优势。⑴Background——The academia generally believes that the low labor cost is the key factor to our country's international competitiveness of timber processing industry.Chinese timber processing products have been dominated in the international market since 21st century based on the competitive advantages in low cost of labor and low productivity level.However,with the rapid growth of Chinese labor cost,the politicians,entrepreneurs and academics worry that the impact of the labor cost change on the export trade or international competitiveness would have an effect on the forestry industry and then might weaken the international competitiveness of Chinese timber processing industry.But most of the previous documents mainly use OLS and panel data model to measure.They study on the average effect of labor cost on the international competitiveness of one industry in sample time and belong to the category of static estimation.There are still no documents considering the dynamic features of the power or direction of the labor cost that influences the international competitiveness from the aspect of unit labor cost(ULC).⑵Methods——Select relevant data from the UN Comtrade Database,WTO Database,China Statistical Yearbook of 1993 to 2008 and China labor Statistical Yearbook of 1993 to 2012.It is analyzed the dynamic influences of the actual monthly payment and ULC at different time on the international competitiveness of timber processing industry by using the time varying parameter state space model and Kalman's filter algorithms.Study on the dynamic impact of labor cost on the international competitiveness of Chinese timber processing industry.⑶Results——First,from 1992 to 2011,Chinese timber processing industry is actually faced with the rapid growth of the labor cost getting from the absolute amount of the actual monthly payment,but seeing from the unit labor cost,the UCL isn't increased but decreased from 1992 to 2007 which indicates that the real labor cost of Chinese timber processing industry is declin

关 键 词：木材加工业 国际竞争力 劳动成本 状态空间模型 Kalman滤波算法 

分 类 号：F752.658[经济管理—国际贸易]